2022 401k and IRA Contribution Limits

Posted on January 4, 2022 // 9 Comments

The beginning of the year is a good time to check on the new annual contribution limits to the various available retirement accounts. Our income has been quite variable these last few years, so I regularly adjust the paycheck deferral percentages based on expected income for the year. This SHRM article has a nice summary of 2022 vs. 2021 numbers for most employer-based accounts.

401k/403b Employer-Sponsored Accounts.

For example, I would break down the applicable limit down to monthly and bi-weekly amounts:

  • $20,500 annual limit = $1,708 per monthly paycheck.
  • $20,500 annual limit = $788 per bi-weekly paycheck.

If you are contributing to a pre-tax account instead of a Roth, you could also use a paycheck calculator to find the detailed impact to your take-home pay.

The higher numbers are for those folks that have the ability to contribute extra money into their 401k accounts on an after-tax basis (and potentially perform an in-service Roth rollover), or those self-employed persons with SEP IRAs or Self-Employed 401k plans.

The investment options in 401k plans have also improved on average steadily over the years with lower fees and costs, allowing your money to compound even faster.

Traditional/Roth IRAs. The annual contribution limits is unchanged from last year, $6,000 with an additional $1,000 allowed for those age 50+.

  • $6,000 annual limit = $500 per monthly paycheck.
  • $6,000 annual limit = $231 per bi-weekly paycheck.

Most brokerage accounts (Vanguard, Fidelity, M1 Finance) will allow you to set up automatic investments on a weekly, biweekly, or monthly basis. As long as you have enough money in your linked checking account, the broker will transfer the cash over and then invest it on a recurring basis. You may even be able to sync it to take out money the very same or next day as when your paycheck hits.

Health Savings Accounts are often treated as the equivalent of a “Healthcare IRA” due the potential triple tax benefits (tax-deduction on contributions, tax-deferred growth for decades, and tax-free withdrawals towards qualified healthcare expenses). This assumes that you have a high-deductible health insurance plan, you can cover your current healthcare expenses out-of-pocket, you can still afford to contribute to the HSA.

Even though I’ve been parroting the “standard personal finance advice” to raise that contribution percentage and save as much as you can in your 401k for years and years, it still holds true. There is some true mind trickery when the money never touches your bank account. The easiest way for me not to eat potato chips is not the have them in the house. (My nemesis is that Costco mega-sized bag of Himalayan Salt Kettle Chips…) The easiest way to make sure you don’t spend the money that you want to invest, is to never have it touch your bank account.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Vanguard Target Retirement Funds – Surprise 10%+ Year-End NAV Drop and Capital Gains Distribution Explained

Posted on January 3, 2022 // 33 Comments

The Vanguard Target Retirement Funds are one of the largest “set-and-forget” mutual funds that own a mix of stocks and bonds that automatically adjust over time based on your targeted retirement year, with combined assets across the institutional and retail classes of over $600 billion.

Reader rp pointed out that on December 30th, 2021, many Vanguard Target Retirement funds had their price (NAV) drop by over 10% in a single day! This was mostly the result of an abnormally large year-end long-term and short-term capital gains distribution. Taken from Vanguard’s final year-end estimates PDF:

Here is an example for the Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund (VFORX). The 2021 cap-gains distribution was roughly 40 times as large as for 2020. Yet, other funds with a similar asset allocation like the Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds did not have a similar result. What happened?

Background. A mutual fund is forced to make a capital gains distribution when it sells stocks (or bonds) that have appreciated in value, thus realizing capital gains. There are various reasons why a mutual fund might sell stocks:

  • An actively-managed fund might sell shares of stocks that they believe are over-valued in order to purchase shares of another business.
  • An index fund might have to sell shares if the underlying index changes. By definition, an index fund must track an index. For example, sometimes the S&P 500 will remove a company from its index.
  • A balanced mutual fund might rebalance between stocks and bonds. If the target is 80% stocks and 20% bonds, the fund might sell some stocks after a big bull run in order to buy some bonds and revert back towards the target.
  • A mutual fund has a high number of redemptions (cash outflows), such that the fund has to sell assets in order to come up with the cash to satisfy all those withdrawals.

Vanguard Target Retirement Funds don’t follow an index themselves, as they are a “fund of funds”. That means they are basically a wrapper for the component index funds. For example, the Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 Fund (VFFVX) is composed of:

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares 54.90%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Investor Shares 35.50%
  • Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund Investor Shares 6.60%
  • Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund Investor Shares 2.80%
  • Vanguard Total International Bond II Index Fund 0.20%

However, these underlying funds did not have huge capital gains distributions themselves that might flow through. In fact, the main components had zero capital gains to distribute, while the other distributed tiny amounts less than 1%.

What we have left is that the Target Retirement Fund itself sold some shares of the component index funds. Stocks did go up in 2021, but not nearly enough to warrant such a huge capital gain. Besides, stocks also went up a similar amount in 2020, and as we saw above the 2020 capital gains distribution was 40x smaller.

In addition, the Institutional Target Retirement 2040 fund only had cap gains distributions of 0.39% of NAV. This fund should have the same rebalancing needs as the retail version for individual investors. The rest of the Institutional Target Retirement years had similarly low distributions.

Strange! Thankfully, I found a great clue by “cas” in this Bogleheads thread. From reading the annual reports for VFORX, we find that as of 3/31/21, the net assets for Target Retirement 2040 was about $35 billion. From January through September 2021, over $16 billion of shares were redeemed from the Target Retirement 2040 fund, while only $6 billion were purchased. The underlying investments grew in value, but investors took out a net $10 billion in cash over the first 9 months of 2021! The large capital gains distribution was primarily due to these large net redemptions.

Okay, but again, why? The main problem was that the “Institutional Target Retirement Funds” are not a share class of the “Target Retirement Funds”. In December 2020, Vanguard lowered the plan-level minimum investment requirement for the Institutional Target Retirement Funds to $5 million from $100 million. Now, as long as an employer’s 401k plan had $5 million in assets across the entire plan (not just one person), they could now access the much cheaper Institutional version… a big savings for possibly thousands of small businesses.

Let’s check the annual reports again. Over the same time period that Target Retirement 2040 lost $10 billion in net cash outflows, the Institutional Target Retirement 2040 Fund gained $13 billion in net cash inflows. Coincidence?

Vanguard incentivized small business retirement plans to sell their holdings from Target Retirement in order to buy Institutional Target Retirement funds by offering them a 30% to 50% reduction in fees, and they did so, moving over billions and billions.

Eventually, in September 2021, Vanguard announced that they would merge each of the Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement Funds into its corresponding Target Retirement Fund. The mergers are not scheduled to be completed until February 2022. There may be more outflows until then. A merger would not have created any forced selling, so why not do this in the first place?

I wonder if Vanguard made a mistake and they simply didn’t realize this would create large outflows. Or perhaps they just didn’t care? Either way, it’s another recent blemish on their record. The order and time delay in which they did things indirectly hurt the individual taxable investors of Target Retirement funds. They should have simply merged the two series in the first place.

This is why the DIY investor should strongly consider only investing in the “raw materials” and “cook from scratch”. VTI, VXUS, and BND ETFs can be held at any brokerage firm, bought and sold for free, distributed tax-efficiently between 401k/IRA and taxable, and are available for ETF-pair tax-loss harvesting in a taxable account. On the other hand, this is something of a one-time event, so you may value the simplicity of Target Retirement funds above the potential drawbacks.

If you like the idea of “auto-pilot” but also want to be be only one allowed to program the autopilot, check out out M1 Finance and their pies (which you can always break back up into component ETFs) as well as Utah My529 and their “customized glide path” option for college savings. I don’t like the fact that Vanguard can always change up their target asset allocation to whatever is trendy. (I have the same issues with the robo-advisors like Wealthfront and Betterment.)

Summary. Vanguard Target Retirement Funds (Investor shares) made large capital gains distributions at the end of 2021. This was mostly due to large outflows from Target Retirement Funds (owned by individual investors and small businesses) into their separate Institutional Target Retirement Funds, as Vanguard lowered the minimums for the Institutional funds from $100 million to $5 million in December 2020. This appears to have forced the Target Retirement funds so sell their investments and incur large capital gains.

If you hold Target Retirement funds in a tax-deferred accounts like 401k/403b/IRA, this has no taxable effect on you. The net asset value (NAV) dropped by a certain amount, and you received a distribution for the same amount. You most likely have it set to reinvest immediately anyway. However, if you held this in a taxable account, you received a taxable distribution. You now owe some extra tax and lost the ability to compound that money into the future. It’s not a disaster, but it did hurt your returns a little, in my view unnecessarily as Vanguard could have handled things differently on their end.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Portfolio Asset Class Returns, 2021 Year-End Review

Posted on January 2, 2022 // 1 Comment

yearendreview2021 is finally in the books! Most of my portfolio is in low-cost index funds across various asset classes, which I purposefully ignore most of the time as I believe the proper time horizon is at least several years long. However, I do check in once a year. Per Morningstar, here are the annual returns for select asset classes as benchmarked by popular ETFs after market close 12/31/21.

Commentary. Investing is easy when everything just seems to keep on going up, up, up. The hardest part is looking over and seeing someone else making even more money. But as Warren Buffett reminds us, envy is the worst sin because you can’t even enjoy it. You just sit there and feel bad with no upside.

2021 was another year where being diversified into international developed and emerging stocks hurt your returns when compared to US stocks. However, I remain content with my market-cap-based split. If US stocks keep going up even with historically-high valuations, then that’s fine by me. If international stocks and their relatively-low valuations make a comeback, I will be covered too.

The only asset classes that dropped in value were the safe, boring bonds and the old-fashioned gold. As is often the case, they only dropped a little and at the same time as when to stocks went up, so nobody really minded much.

The “set and forget” Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 fund (roughly 90% diversified stocks and 10% bonds) was up 16.4% in 2021, almost the exact same number as last year.

In trying to think of a good takeaway, I believe a good investor should be a long-term optimist with long-term money, and remain cautious with their short-term cash reserves. This allows you to see past the current troubles and stay invested even when the outlook is uncertain. 2020 was uncertain. 2021 was uncertain. 2022 is definitely uncertain. If you always wait for the smoke to clear, you’ll miss out on some huge returns.

Filed Under: Investing //

Year-End Portfolio Rebalancing Check-In Time

Posted on December 14, 2021 // 2 Comments

Although you can rebalance the stocks and bonds in your portfolio back towards your target asset allocation at any time, I usually see more articles about it at years-end. This works out well as the evidence doesn’t really support doing it more often than once a year. Morningstar has a couple of interesting rebalancing articles where the overall conclusions are the similar to those from the previously-mentioned Vanguard research, but with some added context.

Rebalancing is about risk control, not necessarily increasing returns. Sometimes rebalancing will increase returns, and sometimes buy-and-hold (not rebalancing) will lead to bigger returns. In the long run, you’d expect buy-and-hold to win as you allow the stocks to keep growing, but you might be surprised when comparing these trailing 15, 20, and 25 year timeframes ending May 2020.

Most common rebalancing strategies all work similarly. This means there is no need to do it more often annually. There is no single rebalancing rule that always results in the highest returns on all portfolios and over every timeframe. Therefore, why not pick an easy one that works for you, such as rebalancing once every year on the same date or using +/- 5% bands that may only get triggered once every 2 years on average.

I’ll end with a good conclusion sentence from the Vanguard paper:

Once you construct the appropriate allocation for your goals, remove yourself from difficult decisions by implementing an easy-to-follow, consistent rebalancing rule. […] We find that, over the long term, no one rebalancing strategy is dominant. Selecting and sticking with a reasonable rebalancing approach is better than not rebalancing at all.

Filed Under: Investing, Taxes //

Fidelity Investments Incoming Brokerage Asset Transfer Review

Posted on December 8, 2021 // 3 Comments

In order to use Fidelity’s Fully Paid Stock Lending Program, I decided to transfer some of my individual stock holdings from Merrill Edge to Fidelity. I was pleasantly surprised by the smooth experience, and here is a quick review of the process.

  1. 12/1 Wednesday. I started the transfer process online at Fidelity and read about my options. I knew that I only wanted to transfer certain tickers, and was told I needed a statement from my current broker dated within the last 90 days. The process was estimated to take a week. I slept on the decision.
  2. 12/2 Thursday. I went through their online Q&A process, which required me to enter online the ticker symbols of all the specific shares that I wanted to transfer. Fidelity then entered this information neatly into their asset transfer form. I simply had to print it out, sign it, scan it into a PDF, and then upload it again. I also uploaded a PDF statement from Merrill Edge. I officially submitted the transfer request.
  3. 12/6 Monday. I noticed early in the day that my shares were removed from my Merrill Edge account. The securities didn’t show up online at Fidelity yet.
  4. 12/7 Tuesday. I received an email from Fidelity notifying me “Transfer of Assets Request Completed”. The shares showed up online at Fidelity as well.
  5. 12/8 Wednesday. I am waiting on the cost basis information to arrive, they said it may take up to 15 additional days.
  6. 12/9 Thursday. Cost basis information showed up online.

Here is the text of the final e-mail:

Congratulations. Your transfer of assets has been completed successfully.

It may take up to 15 days for your firm to provide cost basis information. We will update your account when this information is received. If cost basis information is not provided by your firm, or if your firm identified any assets as non-covered, you can provide this information yourself on the Positions/Cost Basis page within your Portfolio Summary.

Their status tracker page is detailed and informative. (It also confirmed all my of tickers and share amounts, which are not shown below.)

Fees. I could not find any official page regarding transfer fee rebates from Fidelity, but anecdotally if you call them up after completing a transfer, Fidelity may reimburse you any account transfer fees. Transfer fees usually run about $75, so perhaps they decide unofficially based on the amount of assets transferred. Thankfully, Merrill Edge does not charge a fee for outgoing partial account transfers, so there was nothing to reimburse. As far as I know, Fidelity is not offering any transfer bonuses at this time.

Bottom line. The process to transfer some stocks from Merrill Edge to Fidelity took less than a week and was completed 100% online. No phone calls, no follow-up emails, no signature guarantees to track down. I credit good service from both Fidelity and Merrill Edge (where I am still keeping enough assets to qualify for the Platinum Honors tier of their Preferred Rewards program.)

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

Loan Out Your Stocks For Extra Interest? Fully Paid Lending Income Programs

Posted on December 7, 2021 // 34 Comments

A few readers asked about “fully paid lending programs” offered by some brokerage firms. The premise is very intriguing: You lend out the stock shares you own and earn interest, all while keeping full “economic” ownership. You still get any upside or downside, you can still sell at any time, and your loans are backed by 100%+ collateral at a custodial bank. The broker finds borrowers, collects interest, and splits it with you (usually 50/50). Is this zero-effort free money? These programs can go by various names:

From Fidelity, here is a hypothetical example of how interest is calculated using an annualized lending rate of 8.50%.

Are the interest rates really that high? Fintel.io publishes “Short Borrow Fee Rates”, which they define as “the interest rate that must be paid by a short seller of [stock] to the lender of that security.” At the time of this writing, that fee was 0.25% APR for Tesla (TSLA) stock and 0.48% APR for Gamestop (GME) stock. That’s a far cry from 8.5%.

Still, if you have a large portfolio of stocks, even earning 0.10% in annual interest can become significant if it involves no extra effort.

Important factors to consider. After researching and comparing the details for each of these programs, here’s what I found.

  • Understand the mechanics of this collateralized loan. Shares on loan are not covered under Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). Counterparty default is thus a risk, and this is why the SEC requires that the broker provides collateral at a minimum of 100% of the loan value to be held at a third-party custodian bank. If the broker can’t pay, then you can request the collateral. Still, it could be a potential headache if the broker doesn’t follow the rules properly, as warned by this SEC letter.
  • You will get paid cash instead of your usual dividend payments while your security is on loan, and those two things may be taxed differently. Loan proceeds are usually taxed at your marginal tax rate (treated as ordinary income). Oftentimes, qualified dividends are taxed at a lower rate than ordinary income rates. Some brokers adjust for this difference, while many do not.
    It is possible you might lose more money due to these tax differences than gained through lending income.
  • Eligibility requirements vary by broker. For example, TD Ameritrade doesn’t allow margin accounts so you’ll have to downgrade to a cash account first. This may affect your ability to trade immediately with unsettled funds. Meanwhile, Fidelity requires a minimum account value of $25,000.
  • Participation doesn’t guarantee that your shares will be borrowed. Typically, securities that do get borrowed are in high demand or limited supply. Usually, they are used to facilitate short sales.
  • Interest rates paid vary. Don’t get too excited by the interest rates quoted in their hypothetical examples. It’s unlikely you’ll be earning a 8% rate for an entire year.
  • You give up proxy voting rights while your security is on loan.

I’ve never participated in such a program, but I have decided to try out the Fidelity Fully Paid Lending Program. I chose Fidelity for the following reasons:

Minimal counterparty risk. I view Fidelity as one of the most stable and reputable brokers, which means they are the least likely to have any issue paying back these loans. In addition, they have so much other business in high-compliance areas (401k plans, etc) that I trust that they will actually put up the proper collateral. Fidelity doesn’t need to take undue risks and is used to sweating the details.

Fully adjusting lost dividend income for taxes. Fidelity not only pays you any dividend income you miss due to them borrowing your stock, they adjust their payment higher to cover the maximum in potential taxes (26.98%). Perhaps another broker does this, but I didn’t see it spelled out explicitly and transparently like Fidelity. Otherwise, I might lose more money due to taxes than gained through lending income.

In order to mitigate the impact of cash-in-lieu payments to taxable accounts, Fidelity may return shares prior to a dividend record date. To help offset the potential tax burden associated with the receipt of cash-in-lieu payments in place of qualified dividends (as defined in the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003), Fidelity will credit participating taxable accounts with an additional credit adjustment equal to 26.98% of the qualified portion of the distribution. This adjustment will occur annually after all reclassification information is made available.4

Unfortunately, Merrill Edge and Vanguard do not seem to have such programs. I am currently in the process of transferring some securities into my Fidelity account to meet the minimum threshold.

If you have any experiences with these fully paid lending programs (good or bad) with any broker, please feel free to share in the comments. It’s been hard to find “real world” numbers on how much interest income to expect on a basket of mixed stocks.

Update: I posted an update on my real-world Fidelity securities lending income. Spoiler alert: The income has been miniscule.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

Coursera: Free Online Courses on Accounting and Finance

Posted on December 6, 2021 // 2 Comments

One of my newer interests is better understanding individual businesses and how they work. Accounting is the “language of business” used to write annual reports, 10-Ks, 10-Qs, income statements, and so on. I was afraid a textbook would be too boring, so I am auditing the online Coursera course Financial Accounting Fundamentals by Professor Lynch of the University of Virginia. Here’s a quick summary of what is covered in the course:

Accounting is often called the language of business. It is this language that organizations use to communicate their economic performance to others. In this course, you will acquire the tools that you need to understand the fundamentals of accounting, the language of business.

You will learn to record business transactions in the company’s accounts, understand how they flow into the financial statements, and learn to draw basic conclusions about an organization’s financial health from the three most commonly used financial statements, the balance sheet, the income statement and the statement of cash flow. Are you ready? Then let’s go!

Auditing is completely free and lets you view all the materials and take “practice” quizzes, but you can’t take the “real” quizzes needed to earn the “shareable certificate” (which is fine with me as this is just for personal improvement and not future employment). The course assumes no prior knowledge, requires a commitment of roughly 2-3 hours per week, and lasts for 5 weeks. I finished the first week in about an hour and a half by watching videos at 1.25x speed. So far, I’ve enjoyed filling in the gaps in my knowledge.

This course is the first of a 4-part series by UVA called Entrepreneurship: Growing Your Business:

Welcome to Entrepreneurship: Growing Your Business, a new specialization from the Darden School of Business, University of Virginia. This Specialization was designed to give you the real-world tools and processes you will need to take your business from idea, to action, to growth and revenue. You’ll learn how to create budgets and read financial statements, how to lead with values, how to leverage new business models for growth and how to create new business innovations. Ideal for entrepreneurs, small business owners, and those who have a business plan but aren’t sure what to do next, Entrepreneurship: Growing Your Business will help you on the path to success for you, your business and society.

There are a few similar Coursera courses from UPenn Wharton and the University of Illinois.

I used to feel that I didn’t need to know any of this stuff (just buy a Target Date fund and work on your career, etc), but now I want to compound knowledge in this area as well. I’ll be able to use it for the rest of my life as a private investor living off of my portfolio. This is also related to working for yourself for an hour each day.

Filed Under: College & Education, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Best Interest Rates on Cash – December 2021 Update

Posted on December 5, 2021 // 5 Comments

via GIPHY

Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash as of December 2021, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. Significant changes since last month: Not much… NASA FCU has updated their CD specials, and I finished buying up to the individual limits on the 7% Savings I Bonds for both of us. T-Bills, money market funds, and ETFs are still a pass.

I look for lesser-known opportunities earning more than most “high-yield” savings accounts and money market funds while still keeping your principal FDIC-insured or equivalent. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to see how much extra interest you’d earn by moving money between accounts. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 12/5/2021.

Fintech accounts
Available only to individual investors, fintech companies often pay higher-than-market rates in order to achieve fast short-term growth (often using venture capital). “Fintech” is usually a software layer on top of a partner bank’s FDIC insurance. Read about the types of due diligences you should do whenever opening a new bank account.

  • 3% APY on up to $100,000. The top rate is still 3% APY for October through December 2021 (can be 3.5% APY with their credit card), and they have not indicated any upcoming rate drop. HM Bradley requires a recurring direct deposit every month and a savings rate of at least 20%. Due to high demand, you must currently use a referral link to join. If you have any available to share (you only get 3), thanks to those who have dropped theirs in the comments of my HM Bradley review.
  • 3% APY on 10% of direct deposits + 1% APY on $25,000. One Finance lets you earn 3% APY on “auto-save” deposits (up to 10% of your direct deposit, up to $1,000 per month). Separately, they also pay 1% APY on up to another $25,000 with direct deposit. New customer $50 bonus via referral. See my One Finance review.
  • 3% APY on up to $15,000. Porte requires a one-time direct deposit of $1,000+ to open a savings account. New customer $50 bonus via referral. Important note: Porte is adding additional restrictions including minimum monthly transactions in January 2022. See my Porte review.
  • 1.20% APY on up to $50,000. You must maintain a $500 direct deposit each month for this balance cap, otherwise you’ll still earn 1.20% on up to $5,000. See my OnJuno review.

High-yield savings accounts
Since the huge megabanks pay essentially no interest, I think every should have a separate, no-fee online savings account to accompany your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I list the top rates as well as competitive rates from banks with a history of competitive rates. Some banks will bait you with a temporary top rate and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

  • T-Mobile Money is still at 1.00% APY with no minimum balance requirements. The main focus is on the 4% APY on your first $3,000 of balances as a qualifying T-mobile customer plus other hoops, but the lesser-known fact is that the 1% APY is available for everyone. Thanks to the readers who helped me understand this. Unfortunately, some readers have reported their applications being denied.
  • Evangelical Christian Credit Union (ECCU) is offering new members 1.01% APY on up to $25,000 when you bundle a High-Yield Money Market Account & Basic Checking. (Existing members can get 0.75% APY.) To join this credit union, you must attest to their statement of faith.
  • There are several other established high-yield savings accounts at closer to 0.50% APY. Marcus by Goldman Sachs is on that list, and if you open a new account with a Marcus referral link (that’s mine), they will give you and the referrer a 1.00% APY for your first 3 months (a 0.50% boost). You can then extend this by referring others to the same offer.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (plan to buy a house soon, just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. CFG Bank has a 13-month No Penalty CD at 0.62% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. Ally Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 0.50% APY for all balance tiers. Marcus has a 7-month No Penalty CD at 0.45% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. You may wish to open multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • Lafayette Federal Credit Union has a 1-year CD at 0.80% APY ($500 min). Early withdrawal penalty is 6 months of interest. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization ($10 one-time fee).

Money market mutual funds + Ultra-short bond ETFs
Many brokerage firms that pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). Unfortunately, money market fund rates are very low across the board right now. Ultra-short bond funds are another possible alternative, but they are NOT FDIC-insured and may experience short-term losses at times. These numbers are just for reference, not a recommendation.

  • The default sweep option is the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund which has an SEC yield of 0.01%.
  • Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund currently pays 0.45% SEC yield ($3,000 min) and 0.55% SEC Yield ($50,000 min). The average duration is ~1 year, so your principal may vary a little bit.
  • The PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Bond ETF (MINT) has a 0.35% SEC yield and the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) has a 0.44% SEC yield while holding a portfolio of investment-grade bonds with an average duration of ~6 months.

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes. Right now, this section isn’t very interesting as T-Bills are yielding close to zero!

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 12/3/2021, a new 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 0.04% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 0.25% annualized interest.
  • The Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF (GBIL) has a -0.07% SEC yield and the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a -0.09% (!) SEC yield. GBIL appears to have a slightly longer average maturity than BIL.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest. The annual purchase limit for electronic I bonds is $10,000 per Social Security Number, available online at TreasuryDirect.gov. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper I bonds using your tax refund with IRS Form 8888.

  • “I Bonds” bought between November 2021 and April 2022 will earn a 7.12% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. We have both bought up to the individual limits for 2021. Details here.
  • In mid-April 2022, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will have another post up at that time.
  • See below about EE Bonds as a potential long-term bond alternative.

Prepaid Cards with Attached Savings Accounts
A small subset of prepaid debit cards have an “attached” FDIC-insured savings account with exceptionally high interest rates. The negatives are that balances are severely capped, and there are many fees that you must be careful to avoid (lest they eat up your interest). There is a long list of previous offers that have already disappeared with little notice. I don’t personally recommend nor use any of these anymore, as I feel the work required and risk of messing up exceeds any small potential benefit.

  • Mango Money pays 6% APY on up to $2,500, if you manage to jump through several hoops. Requirements include $1,500+ in “signature” purchases and a minimum balance of $25.00 at the end of the month.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops which usually involve 10+ debit card purchases each cycle, a certain number of ACH/direct deposits, and/or a certain number of logins per month. If you make a mistake (or they judge that you did) you risk earning zero interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others would rather not bother. Rates can also drop suddenly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling.

  • Quontic Bank is offering 1.01% APY on balances up to $150,000. This is best for people who have high balances, as the rate is not as high as other rewards checking accounts. You need to make 10 debit card point of sale transactions of $10 or more per statement cycle required to earn this rate.
  • The Bank of Denver pays 2.00% APY on up to $10,000 if you make 12 debit card purchases of $5+ each, receive only online statements, and make at least 1 ACH credit or debit transaction per statement cycle. The rate recently dropped. If you meet those qualifications, you can also link a Kasasa savings account that pays 1.00% APY on up to $25k. Thanks to reader Bill for the updated info.
  • Presidential Bank pays 2.25% APY on balances between $500 and up to $25,000, if you maintain a $500+ direct deposit and at least 7 electronic withdrawals per month (ATM, POS, ACH and Billpay counts).
  • Evansville Teachers Federal Credit Union pays 3.30% APY on up to $20,000. You’ll need at least 15 debit transactions and other requirements every month.
  • Lake Michigan Credit Union pays 3.00% APY on up to $15,000. You’ll need at least 10 debit transactions and other requirements every month.
  • Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • NASA Federal Credit Union has a special 49-month Share Certificate at 1.70% APY ($10,000 min of new funds). Early withdrawal penalty is 1 year of interest. They also have a 15-month special at 1.05% APY and 8-month at 0.80% APY.
    Anyone can join this credit union by joining the National Space Society (free). However, NASA FCU will perform a hard credit check as part of new member application.
  • Lafayette Federal Credit Union has a 5-year CD at 1.26% APY ($500 min). Early withdrawal penalty is 6 months of interest. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization ($10 one-time fee). PenFed and other credit unions now offer rates close to 1.25% on a 5-year CD.
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. Right now, I see a 5-year CD at 1.25% APY. Be wary of higher rates from callable CDs listed by Fidelity.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk, but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10 years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. You might find something that pays more than your other brokerage cash and Treasury options. Right now, I see a 10-year CD at 1.80% APY vs. 1.29% for a 10-year Treasury. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs from Fidelity.
  • How about two decades? Series EE Savings Bonds are not indexed to inflation, but they have a unique guarantee that the value will double in value in 20 years, which equals a guaranteed return of 3.5% a year. However, if you don’t hold for that long, you’ll be stuck with the normal rate which is quite low (currently 0.10%). I view this as a huge early withdrawal penalty. But if holding for 20 years isn’t an issue, it can also serve as a hedge against prolonged deflation during that time. Purchase limit is $10,000 each calendar year for each Social Security Number. As of 12/3/2021, the 20-year Treasury Bond rate was 1.77%.

All rates were checked as of 12/5/2021.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Morningstar Safe Withdrawal Rate Report: 3.3% Base Rate + Ways To Increase It

Posted on November 30, 2021 // 3 Comments

Financial freedom seekers usually have a Number – the value at which their investments can support their spending indefinitely. This is directly linked to “safe withdrawal rates”. For example a 4% safe withdrawal rate is a 25x multiplier – meaning $30,000 in spending needs not covered by Social Security, annuities, or pensions would require 25 x $30,000 = $750,000. Morningstar recently released a 59-page research paper called The State of Retirement Income: Safe Withdrawal Rates (summary article) that digs deeper into the “4% rule”. The headline is that they now estimate 3.3% a conservative base rate (30x multiplier):

What’s a safe withdrawal rate for retirees? We estimate 3.3%. However, there are various factors that could affect this percentage, resulting in the retiree withdrawing a significantly higher amount. This report explores ways that retirees can make their savings last longer without compromising their standard of living.

Instead of focusing on the 3.3% base rate, look at the various ways you can improve it. The 3.3% base rate assumes a 50% stock/50% bond portfolio, fixed withdrawals (adjusted upwards for inflation annually, no matter what) over a 30-year time horizon, and a 90% probability of success. What if you changed up some of these assumptions?

Lever #1: Hold a higher percentage of stocks. Historically, having a minimum amount of stocks is important in order to outpace inflation. However, going past 50% to 75% stocks no longer helps your minimum safe withdrawal rate. Not much room for improvement here.

Lever #2: Tolerate lower safety (success rate). This chart is useful to help accept the role of luck for a stock-based retirement portfolio. The fact is that 50% of the time, you could have withdrawn 4.7% and been just fine. You simply don’t know. (This is hard for me as a planner.) The retiree “Class of 2011” could have spent more than that so far without even denting their nest egg. However, the “Class of 2021” may have a very different experience. Going down to 80% probability of success moves you up from 3.3% to 3.9%.

Lever #3: Don’t keep adjusting upward for inflation. Your personal inflation rate might not keep up with the national averages. You might very well spend less as you age. If you adjust for 3/4th of inflation, that 3.3% goes up to 3.6%.

Forgoing inflation adjustments–at least in part–is another lever. That might seem farfetched in the current environment, given that inflation is top of mind. But research from David Blanchett, formerly of Morningstar but now at PGIM, has demonstrated that retirement spending doesn’t necessarily track inflation and often trends down throughout the lifecycle. Our research shows that the retiree who adjusts his or her paycheck by just 75% of the actual inflation rate would be able to take a starting withdrawal of 3.6%, for example.

Lever #4: Work longer. Make more money, make retirement period shorter. Not much fun, but effective. My view is that any amount of income will help reduce your withdrawal rate, if you have the time and ability. It is less common nowadays to go from full-time job to zero income. Working 10 hours a week feels much different than 40-50 hours a week.

Reducing the time horizon for drawdown–for example, by delaying retirement a few years–can likewise contribute to a higher starting safe withdrawal rate. For example, delaying retirement by five years and truncating the in-retirement spending horizon to 25 years from 30 results in a starting safe withdrawal amount of 4.1%.

Lever #5: Flexible spending based on market performance. There are several ways that you could adjust your spending in retirement in response to your portfolio’s return. In general, you’d want to spend less when the market is down. Some of this will come naturally as it’s easier to cut back on spending when you see your friends and neighbors cutting back as well. However, I was surprised to see that several of the proposed methods really don’t change the numbers much.

The method that does help significantly is called the Guyton-Klinger “guardrails” method, which allows inflation adjustments but applies “guardrails” so that the spending rate stays within 20% of the initial withdrawal percentage. Lets say your initial percentage is 4%. If markets go sky-high, the guardrails let you spend at least 3.2% of your new portfolio value (with inflation adjustments). If markets plummet, the guardrails let you spend at most 4.8% of your new portfolio value (with inflation adjustments).

Hold up! Early Retirement Now has an excellent post about how the Guyton-Klinger guardrails are much more “variable” than just +/- 20%. The guardrails move with the portfolio value. If you started out taking $40,000 out of a $100,000 portfolio, by following this rule starting in 1966, your income would have dropped to below $20,000 a year! A 50% drop in income is far too flexible for most people.

My personal thoughts. Every year that passes, I pay less attention to historical backtests and precise safe withdrawal rates. Instead, I care more about understanding the earning power of the assets that I own (including my own skills), and understanding the structure and flexibility of my expenses.

In regards to market returns, it is better to be lucky than anything else. Let’s say you retired about a year ago on October 31st, 2020 and owned the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBIAX) that is 60% US stocks and 40% US bonds. If you had a $1,000,000, a 4% withdrawal rate is $40,000. But a year later, on October 31st, 2021, your portfolio would be just shy of $1,200,000 ($1,195,584) even after taking out $40,000 during the first year. This is just after one year!

In other words, 3.3% could easily be obsolete in a year. You are multiplying a safe withdrawal rate by something that can easily move up or down 20% each year, so why care about decimal points? Focus on what you can control. Looking back at all the levers above, here is what I can control:

  • Accept that a stock-based retirement portfolio will rely on luck. 3% = very safe. 4% = probably safe. 5% = risky. 6% = not safe.
  • Keep your portfolio in retirement somewhere between 50% and 75% stocks, with the rest in investment-grade bonds.
  • Don’t blindly keep taking out more money each year for inflation.
  • Working longer may be required, but explore ways to downshift while still making some income. Even small amounts of income make a difference. For example, 1% of $750,000 is $7,500 per year ($144/week). Earning $144 per week in income would move you from a 5% withdrawal rate to a 4% withdrawal rate, from a 4% withdrawal rate to a 3% withdrawal rate, and so on.
  • Don’t plan to spend the same amount every year. Spend less when markets are down, as most people do anyway. Think about the flex in your budget. Don’t lock in long-term commitments (vacation home ownership, any debt, agreements to pay for your kid’s X). Pick things that you can shut off (vacation rentals, travel, dining out).
Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) ETF Lineup Keeps Expanding

Posted on November 18, 2021 // Leave a Comment

Some investors like to break down their portfolio into several different asset and sub-asset classes. One long-standing example of the “slice-and-dice” is the “Ultimate Buy-and-Hold Portfolio” recommended by Paul Merriman (see pie chart; expanded labels below). You don’t need to hold every one of these asset classes, but when held in combination they historically offer a higher return with lower volatility.

  • S&P 500 (US Large Cap Blend)
  • US Large Value
  • US Small
  • US Small Value
  • US REIT
  • International Large Cap Blend
  • International US Large Value
  • International Small
  • International Small Value
  • Emerging Markets
  • Short-term/Intermediate-term Bonds

For a long time, Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) offered some of the best lower-cost mutual funds tracking these types of sub-asset classes, but they also required you to invest through a DFA-affiliated financial advisor (and pay the accompanying management fees). Eventually, some former DFA executives and employees broke off and started Avantis ETFs, which are available to any investor with a brokerage accounts and offered a good DFA alternative. Avantis’ assets under management have been growing…

Lo and behold, DFA has just announced a big expansion of their DFA ETF lineup. Competition works!

Newly-listed DFA Bond ETFs

  • Dimensional Core Fixed Income ETF (DFCF)
  • Dimensional Short-Duration Fixed Income ETF (DFSD)
  • Dimensional National Municipal Bond ETF (DFNM)
  • Dimensional Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (DFIP)

Future DFA Equity ETFs

  • International Core Equity 2 ETF
  • Emerging Markets Core Equity 2 ETF
  • US Small Cap Value ETF
  • International Small Cap ETF
  • International Small Cap Value ETF
  • Emerging Markets Value ETF
  • US High Profitability ETF
  • International High Profitability ETF
  • Emerging Markets High Profitability ETF
  • US Real Estate ETF

Existing DFA ETFs

  • Dimensional US Core Equity Market ETF (DFAU)
  • Dimensional International Core Equity Market ETF (DFAI)
  • Dimensional Emerging Core Equity Market ETF (DFAE)
  • Dimensional US Core Equity 2 ETF (DFAC)
  • Dimensional US Equity ETF (DFUS)
  • Dimensional US Small Cap ETF (DFAS)
  • Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF (DFAT)
  • Dimensional International Value ETF (DFIV)
  • Dimensional World ex US Core Equity 2 ETF (DFAX)

Some of the confusing names are a result of these ETFs being conversions from the old mutual fund versions. Even though I try to keep things relatively simple and humble, I welcome these new investment options to the competitive marketplace along with their reasonably-low expense ratios. I may even switch my TIPS holdings to the DFA TIPS ETF (DFIP), as it is cheaper than the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP).

I use Vanguard for my “core” index funds, but about 10% of my total portfolio is split between US Small Value and International/Emerging Small Value stocks. I recently bought/rebalanced into some of the new Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF (AVDV), but will keep an eye on the new DFA version. I suppose they could be a tax-loss harvesting ETF pair, but I have them inside a tax-sheltered account.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Best Interest Rates on Cash – November 2021 Update

Posted on November 3, 2021 // 3 Comments

via GIPHY

Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash as of November 2021, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. I look for lesser-known opportunities earning more than most “high-yield” savings accounts and money market funds while still keeping your principal FDIC-insured or equivalent. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to see how much extra interest you’d earn by moving money between accounts. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 11/3/2021.

Fintech accounts
Available only to individual investors, fintech companies often pay higher-than-market rates in order to achieve fast short-term growth (often using venture capital). “Fintech” is usually a software layer using a different bank’s FDIC insurance. These do NOT require a certain number debit card purchases per month. Read about the types of due diligences you should do whenever opening a new bank account.

  • 3% APY on up to $100,000. The top rate is still 3% APY for October through December 2021 (can be 3.5% APY with their credit card), and they have not indicated any upcoming rate drop. HM Bradley requires a recurring direct deposit every month and a savings rate of at least 20%. Due to high demand, you must currently use a referral link to join. If you have any available to share (you get 3), please drop it in the comments of my HM Bradley review.
  • 3% APY on 10% of direct deposits + 1% APY on $25,000. One Finance lets you earn 3% APY on “auto-save” deposits (up to 10% of your direct deposit, up to $1,000 per month). Separately, they also pay 1% APY on up to another $25,000 with direct deposit. New customer $50 bonus via referral. See my One Finance review.
  • 3% APY on up to $15,000. Porte requires a one-time direct deposit of $1,000+ to open a savings account. New customer $50 bonus via referral. Important note: Porte is adding additional restrictions in January 2022. See my Porte review.
  • 1.20% APY on up to $50,000. You must maintain a $500 direct deposit each month for this balance cap, otherwise you’ll still earn 1.20% on up to $5,000. See my OnJuno review.

High-yield savings accounts
While the huge megabanks pay essentially no interest, I think every should have a separate, no-fee online savings account to accompany your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I list the top rates as well as competitive rates from banks with a history of competitive rates. Some banks will bait you with a temporary top rate and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

  • T-Mobile Money is still at 1.00% APY with no minimum balance requirements. The main focus is on the 4% APY on your first $3,000 of balances as a qualifying T-mobile customer plus other hoops, but the lesser-known fact is that the 1% APY is available for everyone. Thanks to the readers who helped me understand this. Unfortunately, some readers have reported their applications being denied.
  • Evangelical Christian Credit Union (ECCU) is offering new members 1.01% APY on up to $25,000 when you bundle a High-Yield Money Market Account & Basic Checking. (Existing members can get 0.75% APY.) To join this credit union, you must attest to their statement of faith.
  • There are several other established high-yield savings accounts at closer to 0.50% APY. Marcus by Goldman Sachs is on that list, and if you open a new account with a Marcus referral link (that’s mine), they will give you and the referrer a 0.50% boost on top of the current interest rate for 3 months. You can then extend this by referring others to the same offer. Right now, Marcus is paying 0.50% APY, so with the offer you’d get 1.00% APY currently for your first 3 months.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (plan to buy a house soon, just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. CFG Bank has a 13-month No Penalty CD at 0.62% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. Ally Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 0.50% APY for all balance tiers. Marcus has a 7-month No Penalty CD at 0.45% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. You may wish to open multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • USALLIANCE Financial Credit Union has a 12-month CD at 0.85% APY ($500 minimum new money) with an early withdrawal penalty of 6 months interest. You must join the credit union first, but anyone can join via American Consumer Council (ACC).

Money market mutual funds + Ultra-short bond ETFs
Many brokerage firms that pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). Unfortunately, money market fund rates are very low across the board right now. Ultra-short bond funds are another possible alternative, but they are NOT FDIC-insured and may experience short-term losses at times. These numbers are just for reference, not a recommendation.

  • The default sweep option is the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund which has an SEC yield of 0.01%. Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund (formerly Prime Money Market) currently pays 0.01% SEC yield.
  • Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund currently pays 0.33% SEC yield ($3,000 min) and 0.43% SEC Yield ($50,000 min). The average duration is ~1 year, so your principal may vary a little bit.
  • The PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Bond ETF (MINT) has a 0.26% SEC yield and the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) has a 0.40% SEC yield while holding a portfolio of investment-grade bonds with an average duration of ~6 months.

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes. Right now, this section isn’t very interesting as T-Bills are yielding close to zero!

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 11/3/2021, a new 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 0.05% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 0.17% annualized interest.
  • The Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF (GBIL) has a -0.07% SEC yield and the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a -0.09% (!) SEC yield. GBIL appears to have a slightly longer average maturity than BIL.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest. The annual purchase limit for electronic I bonds is $10,000 per Social Security Number, available online at TreasuryDirect.gov. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper I bonds using your tax refund with IRS Form 8888.

  • “I Bonds” bought between November 2021 and April 2022 will earn a 7.12% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. Details here.
  • In mid-April 2022, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will have another post up at that time.
  • See below about EE Bonds as a potential long-term bond alternative.

Prepaid Cards with Attached Savings Accounts
A small subset of prepaid debit cards have an “attached” FDIC-insured savings account with exceptionally high interest rates. The negatives are that balances are severely capped, and there are many fees that you must be careful to avoid (lest they eat up your interest). There is a long list of previous offers that have already disappeared with little notice. I don’t personally recommend nor use any of these anymore, as I feel the work required and risk of messing up exceeds any small potential benefit.

  • Mango Money pays 6% APY on up to $2,500, if you manage to jump through several hoops. Requirements include $1,500+ in “signature” purchases and a minimum balance of $25.00 at the end of the month.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops which usually involve 10+ debit card purchases each cycle, a certain number of ACH/direct deposits, and/or a certain number of logins per month. If you make a mistake (or they judge that you did) you risk earning zero interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others would rather not bother. Rates can also drop suddenly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling.

  • Quontic Bank is offering 1.01% APY on balances up to $150,000. This is best for people who have high balances, as the rate is not as high as other rewards checking accounts. You need to make 10 debit card point of sale transactions of $10 or more per statement cycle required to earn this rate.
  • (Balance caps will drop as of 11/17/2021) The Bank of Denver pays 2.00% APY on up to $10,000 (down from $25,000 as of 11/17/21) if you make 12 debit card purchases of $5+ each, receive only online statements, and make at least 1 ACH credit or debit transaction per statement cycle. The rate recently dropped. If you meet those qualifications, you can also link a Kasasa savings account that pays 1.00% APY on up to $25k (down from $50k as of 11/17/21). Thanks to reader Bill for the updated info.
  • Presidential Bank pays 2.25% APY on balances up to $25,000, if you maintain a $500+ direct deposit and at least 7 electronic withdrawals per month (ATM, POS, ACH and Billpay counts).
  • Evansville Teachers Federal Credit Union pays 3.30% APY on up to $20,000. You’ll need at least 15 debit transactions and other requirements every month.
  • Lake Michigan Credit Union pays 3.00% APY on up to $15,000. You’ll need at least 10 debit transactions and other requirements every month.
  • Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • Abound Credit Union has a 59-month Share Certificate at 1.35% APY ($500 min). Early withdrawal penalty is 1 year of interest (and only with the consent of the credit union, so be aware). Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization ($10 one-time fee).
  • NASA Federal Credit Union has a special 49-month Share Certificate at 1.60% APY ($10,000 min of new funds). Early withdrawal penalty is 1 year of interest. Anyone can join this credit union by joining the National Space Society (free). However, NASA FCU will perform a hard credit check as part of new member application.
  • Lafayette Federal Credit Union has a 5-year CD at 1.26% APY ($500 min). Early withdrawal penalty is 6 months of interest. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization ($10 one-time fee).
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. Right now, I see a 5-year CD at 1.15% APY. Be wary of higher rates from callable CDs listed by Fidelity.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk, but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10 years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. You might find something that pays more than your other brokerage cash and Treasury options. Right now, I see a 10-year CD at 2.00% APY vs. 1.53% for a 10-year Treasury. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs from Fidelity.
  • How about two decades? Series EE Savings Bonds are not indexed to inflation, but they have a unique guarantee that the value will double in value in 20 years, which equals a guaranteed return of 3.5% a year. However, if you don’t hold for that long, you’ll be stuck with the normal rate which is quite low (currently 0.10%). I view this as a huge early withdrawal penalty. But if holding for 20 years isn’t an issue, it can also serve as a hedge against prolonged deflation during that time. Purchase limit is $10,000 each calendar year for each Social Security Number. As of 11/3/2021, the 20-year Treasury Bond rate was 2.01%.

All rates were checked as of 11/3/2021.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Savings I Bonds November 2021 Interest Rate: 7.12% Inflation Rate

Posted on November 1, 2021 // 71 Comments

November 2021 rate confirmed at 7.12%. The variable inflation-indexed rate for I bonds bought from November 1, 2021 through April 30th, 2022 will indeed be 7.12% as predicted. Every single I bond will earn this rate eventually for 6 months, depending on the initial purchase month.

The fixed rate (real yield) is also 0% as predicted, but realize that the real yield on a 5-year TIPS right now is about negative 1.7%. There is significant demand for inflation protection right now. See you again in mid-April for the next early prediction for May 2022. Don’t forget that the purchase limits are based on calendar year, if you still wish to max out for 2021.

Original post 10/13/2021:

Savings I Bonds are a unique, low-risk investment backed by the US Treasury that pay out a variable interest rate linked to inflation. With a holding period from 12 months to 30 years, you could own them as an alternative to bank certificates of deposit (they are liquid after 12 months) or bonds in your portfolio.

New inflation numbers were just announced at BLS.gov, which allows us to make an early prediction of the November 2021 savings bond rates a couple of weeks before the official announcement on the 1st. This also allows the opportunity to know exactly what a October 2021 savings bond purchase will yield over the next 12 months, instead of just 6 months. You can then compare this against a November 2021 purchase.

New inflation rate prediction. March 2021 CPI-U was 264.877. September 2021 CPI-U was 274.310, for a semi-annual increase of 3.56%. Using the official formula, the variable component of interest rate for the next 6 month cycle will be 7.12%. You add the fixed and variable rates to get the total interest rate. If you have an older savings bond, your fixed rate may be up to 3.60%.

Tips on purchase and redemption. You can’t redeem until after 12 months of ownership, and any redemptions within 5 years incur an interest penalty of the last 3 months of interest. A simple “trick” with I-Bonds is that if you buy at the end of the month, you’ll still get all the interest for the entire month – same as if you bought it in the beginning of the month. It’s best to give yourself a few business days of buffer time. If you miss the cutoff, your effective purchase date will be bumped into the next month.

Buying in October 2021. If you buy before the end of October, the fixed rate portion of I-Bonds will be 0%. You will be guaranteed a total interest rate of 0.00 + 3.54 = 3.54% for the next 6 months. For the 6 months after that, the total rate will be 0.00 + 7.12 = 7.12%.

Let’s look at a worst-case scenario, where you hold for the minimum of one year and pay the 3-month interest penalty. If you theoretically buy on October 31st, 2021 and sell on October 1st, 2022, you’ll earn a ~3.87% annualized return for an 11-month holding period, for which the interest is also exempt from state income taxes. If you theoretically buy on October 31st, 2021 and sell on January 1, 2023, you’ll earn a ~4.57% annualized return for an 14-month holding period. Comparing with the best interest rates as of October 2021, you can see that this is much higher than a current top savings account rate or 12-month CD.

Buying in November 2021. If you buy in November 2021, you will get 7.12% plus a newly-set fixed rate for the first 6 months. The new fixed rate is officially unknown, but is loosely linked to the real yield of short-term TIPS, and is thus very, very, very likely to be 0%. Every six months after your purchase, your rate will adjust to your fixed rate (set at purchase) plus a variable rate based on inflation.

If you have an existing I-Bond, the rates reset every 6 months depending on your purchase month. Your bond rate = your specific fixed rate (set at purchase) + variable rate (total bond rate has a minimum floor of 0%). So if your fixed rate was 1%, you’ll be earning a 1.00 + 7.12 = 8.12% rate for six months.

Buy now or wait? Given that the current I bond rate is already much higher than the equivalent alternatives, I would personally buy in October to lock in the high rate for the longest possible time. Who knows what will happen on the next reset? Either way, it seems worthwhile to use up the purchase limit for 2021 either in October or November. You are also getting a much better “deal” than with TIPS, as the fixed rate is currently negative with short-term TIPS.

Unique features. I have a separate post on reasons to own Series I Savings Bonds, including inflation protection, tax deferral, exemption from state income taxes, and educational tax benefits.

Over the years, I have accumulated a nice pile of I-Bonds and consider it part of the inflation-linked bond allocation inside my long-term investment portfolio.

Annual purchase limits. The annual purchase limit is now $10,000 in online I-bonds per Social Security Number. For a couple, that’s $20,000 per year. You can only buy online at TreasuryDirect.gov, after making sure you’re okay with their security protocols and user-friendliness. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper I bonds using your tax refund with IRS Form 8888. If you have children, you may be able to buy additional savings bonds by using a minor’s Social Security Number.

Note: Opening a TreasuryDirect account can sometimes be a hassle as they may ask for a medallion signature guarantee which requires a visit to a physical bank or credit union and snail mail. Don’t expect to be able to open an account in 5 minutes on your phone.

Bottom line. Savings I bonds are a unique, low-risk investment that are linked to inflation and only available to individual investors. Right now, they promise to pay out a higher fixed rate above inflation than TIPS. You can only purchase them online at TreasuryDirect.gov, with the exception of paper bonds via tax refund. For more background, see the rest of my posts on savings bonds.

[Image: 1950 Savings Bond poster from US Treasury – source]

Filed Under: Banking, Investing, Retirement, Savings Bonds //
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