BullionDirect Bankruptcy: Buyer Beware With Gold Storage Companies

Posted on September 20, 2015 // 13 Comments

2015goldBullionDirect.com sold gold and silver bullion and even offered to store it in a vault for you for free. How nice of them. Unfortunately, they lied. From a Austin American-Statesman article with lots of customer interviews:

By the time auditors and lawyers got access to Bullion Direct’s 14th-floor offices six weeks ago, there were only a handful of gold and silver coins in an office safe. A second vault it had recently rented held only slightly more.

An estimated $30 million in cash, metal bullion and valuable coins, meanwhile, had vanished.

Here’s another snippet from a CoinWeek article (more detailed updates here):

Bullion Direct filed a declaration that stated that “when a customer placed an order, the precious metal was not actually purchased unless the customer agreed to take actual delivery of the product.” In other words, they never bought the metal customers purchased if it was to be stored.

This story is not about whether or not to buy gold. The lesson is that if you buy physical gold from a dealer and they either never deliver it to you or they say they’ll store it for you but the vault is really empty and say “oops we’re bankrupt!”… there is no government insurance mechanism that guarantees your assets. They can say they have “layers of insurance” and “regular, independent audits”, but they could also be lying to your face. If you have your gold stored somewhere, do you know the actual name of the insurance company they are using, and have you verified with that company about what exactly that policy covers?

From what I can tell, you could just replace “gold storage” with “pink teddy bear storage” to get an approximate idea of your level of protection. You can sue for your lost teddy bears, but if the company is broke and criminally stole your money, you may not get much if anything back even after liquidating any remaining assets.

This is very different from keeping assets under set limits at an FDIC-insured bank or holding regulated securities at an SIPC-insured brokerage firm. If you hold cash at a FDIC-insured bank and it fails, you’ll get your money back (subject to limits of $250k per account designation). If you hold Vanguard mutual funds in a TD Ameritrade account, those shares are also structured as to be protected if either Vanguard or TD Ameritrade has financial problems. (To be clear, your number of shares is protected up to limits, but the market value of those shares is not guaranteed.)

If I was to buy gold, so far my plan would be to buy 1 oz. American Eagle coins direct from a US Mint Authorized Purchaser, and then test them again myself with this Fisch gold coin tester. There is a premium over spot price for coins, but it would improve liquidity. Perhaps it is even worth paying the 3% markup for paying with credit card, especially if you can earn at least 2% in cash back or points, and then chalk up the net 1% markup as a form of purchase protection. Of course, storing it yourself has its own set of potential issues.

Filed Under: Investing //

Charts: Municipal Bond to US Treasury Yield Ratio

Posted on September 16, 2015 // 5 Comments

I’ve been investing in tax-exempt municipal bonds for a few years now. I made the change due to a combination of reasons. For one thing, I started running out of room in my tax-deferred accounts for US Treasury bonds, TIPS bonds, and REITs. Second, I believe that buying muni bonds through a Vanguard actively-managed mutual fund gives me a diversified mix of high-quality bonds. Third, the effective after-tax yields on muni bonds can be very attractive when compared to US Treasury bond yields. In many time periods, muni yields have been as high as Treasury yields, even before any tax considerations. This was very rare pre-2008 financial crisis, with the historical average being a 80% ratio.

Here are a few charts that track the relationship between the yields on US Treasury and Investment-grade municipal bonds. Notice that the ratio of Muni-to-Treasury has kept close to 100% in the last few years. I’ve tried to dig up enough to cover a continuous timeline, but let me know if you have a better graph.

muni_timing3

Source: Wealthmanagement.com

muni_treasury_ratio

Source: Financial-Planning.com

muni_timing2

Source: ValueWalk.com

Although it can be tempting to use these charts as timing tools, I try to focus on the overall picture. Due to the tax-exempt advantage, I am happy as long as the muni rates are roughly the same as Treasury rates.

As of September 9, 2015, the SEC yield of Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Investors Shares (VWITX) was 1.78% while the SEC yield of Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Investor Shares (VFITX) was 1.43%. Both are hardly exciting and the muni fund is considered a little more risky (how much riskier is quite difficult to quantify), but for my own portfolio I think the higher yield is worth it especially considering the muni interest is exempt from federal income taxes.

Muni bonds are a somewhat different from other asset classes because they are owned mostly by individuals as opposed to institutions. Based on Morningstar investor returns, us individuals haven’t shown any superior skill at market timing their buys.

muni_timing

However, the performance gap is similar to that of the Vanguard Treasury fund of similar duration. So perhaps that gap is just due to the effect of natural cashflow timing (i.e. regular investments over time) rather than failed attempts at chasing performance.

Filed Under: Investing //

Do Financial Advisors Really Keep Portfolios and Clients Disciplined?

Posted on September 15, 2015 // 23 Comments

I written about Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), a mutual fund family that is powered by top academic research. Another things that makes DFA unique is that they are only sold through approved financial advisors. You can’t buy them with just any old brokerage account. (Exceptions are certain 401(k)-style retirement plans and 529 college savings plans.) Allan Roth has new article about DFA funds in Financial Planning magazine, which is a trade publication targeted to financial professionals.

Why not sell directly to Average Joe investor? Here is David Butler, head of DFA Global Financial Advisor Services:

DFA has no intention of bypassing the advisor channel and offering its funds directly to retail investors. “We think advisors help keep investors disciplined,” Butler says.

In my previous post The True Value of a Real, Human Financial Advisor, I wrote about this concept. A good client advisor will help you keep your cool when the next disaster comes. Vanguard says that the biggest “value add” from good advisors is their “behavioral coaching”. A good financial advisor keeps you from making the “Big Mistake” that derails your plans.

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But later in the same Allan Roth article, the idea of advisors as disciplinarians is called into question.

But do investors get better returns? I tested Butler’s claim that DFA advisors help keep investors disciplined by asking Morningstar to compare the performance gap between the two fund families. The performance gap is the difference between investor returns (dollar weighted) and fund returns (geometric).

Over the 10 years ending Dec. 31, 2014, the DFA annualized performance gap stood at 1.28% versus only 0.22% for Vanguard. When I showed these figures to Butler, he responded, “It’s hard to make an argument about the discipline of advisors based on these figures.”

Here’s a primer on investor returns vs. fund returns. Investor returns are the actual returns earned by investors, based on the timing of their buying and selling activities.

The next step was to compare the investor returns of DFA’s largest fund, DFA Emerging Markets Value I Fund (DFEVX) with $14B in assets with the closest Vanguard competitor, Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Fund (VEMAX) with $54B in assets. I personally think a better comparison would be with their DFA Emerging Markets Core Equity I Fund (DFCEX), so I’m throwing that in as well.

DFA fund returns are often higher relative to index fund competitors. Here’s a Morningstar chart comparing the growth of $10,000 invested 10 years ago in each of the three funds. You can see the DFA funds do slightly better in terms of fund returns. Click to enlarge.

dfa_em_vg_10k

But what about investor returns? I took some screenshots of their respective Morningstar Investor Return pages.

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dfa_em_vg

dfa_em3

We see that after accounting for the timing of actual cashflows, the average investor in the DFA fund actually lost money with an annualized return of -1.01% and -2.04%! Meanwhile, the average Vanguard investor earned over 6% annualized.

The three mutual funds don’t have the exact same investment objective, but they do both all pull from the overall Emerging Markets asset class. The DFA funds try to focus ways to earn greater long-term return by holding stocks with a higher “value” factor, but it also has a higher expense ratio. The Vanguard fund just tries to “buy the haystack” and passively track the entire index.

Let’s recap. The stated reason why DFA is only sold through advisors is that they offer more discipline. We are told that such behavioral coaching is where human advisors provide their greatest value. However, the evidence available suggests that DFA advisors are less good at trading discipline than when a similar fund is completely open to retail investors.

I found this rather surprising. I used to think that restricting my potential advisors to those were affiliated with DFA was one way of getting an “above-average” advisor. But after doing my own research, I found that even though DFA investments are generally lower-cost, the additional fees charged by individual advisors ranged widely from reasonable to quite expensive.

I am confident there are financial advisors that can provide the proper behavioral coaching that makes them well worth the cost. At the same time, clearly many are not providing the advertised guidance and discipline. The problem remains – how does Average Joe investor find the good ones? I still know of no clear-cut way.

Filed Under: Behavioral Economics, Investing, Retirement //

Lifetime Income vs. Lump Sum Payouts: You May Live Longer Than You Think

Posted on September 1, 2015 // 10 Comments

My parents are in the midst of planning their retirement payout structure. I don’t know about everyone else, but in my mind I tend to plan to live to pretty much exactly age 80. Early death is depressing to think about (even though I have term life insurance), but what about the other end? The Statistical Ideas blog had a timely post about longevity risks and lump-sum payouts which contained a “death table” (horrible name) for people born in 1950. I’m going to paraphrase the explanation in a way that makes more sense to me.

1950longevity

  • Out of every 100 people born in 1950, roughly 1/3rd are expected to die by age 65. (Blue)
  • If you are in the group alive at 65, your life expectancy is now age 79. That is, half of that group will die before 79. (Green)
  • But, that also means you have a 50% chance of living past 79. If so, you will live to somewhere between 80 to 110. In other words, possibly a really long time! (Red)

If you are a couple, then the odds of at least one of you living a really long time is even higher. Let’s take a couple, one male and one female, who are both age 65. According to this Vanguard longevity calculator, there is an 89% chance at least one will reach age 80, and a 45% chance at last one will reach age 90. If you are younger, your life expectancy is even longer; enter your age(s) into the calculator.

Here’s my mental shortcut. For an individual that is 65 today, there is roughly a 50/50 chance they will reach age 80. For a couple both at 65, roughly a 50/50 chance that at least one person will reach age 90. Putting it this makes make either scenario equally likely and would push me to plan accordingly. On one side of the coin flip, you have to enjoy life now! On the other side, you need to be prepared.

This longevity risk needs to be accounted for when you give up pensions or annuities that offer you a guaranteed income for life. A lump sum payout may sound attractive, but be very careful. Have any annuity and pension buyout offers analyzed and checked by an unbiased third-party. It is a big decision and may be worth paying an expert for their time.

Here’s a sad story of lowball buyout offers for lead-paint victims. Not to say all lump-sum offers are this bad, but it serves as a warning to make sure you understand what you are giving up.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Stock Investing: Taking Your Money Off The Table Until Things Calm Down?

Posted on August 27, 2015 // Leave a Comment

Updated 2020. How many e-mails have you gotten regarding “recent market volatility”? The advice is almost always the same, think long-term. Feeling some fear and uncertainty is normal. During extreme times, a phrase often heard will be “I’m just going to take some money off the table until things calm down. Why risk it?”

What happens when you play it safe? Here’s a 2015 chart from FiveThirtyEight.com comparing the results of a “cautious, play-it-safe” investor and the “do-nothing” investor:

538_markets

Imagine two people who each invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1980. The first one buys once and never sells. The second one is slightly more cautious: He sells any time the market loses 5 percent in a week, and buys back in once it rebounds 3 percent from wherever it bottoms out. At the end of last week, the first investor’s holdings would be worth $18,635. The second investor would have just $10,613.

This is interesting, because they let you (sort of) pick the temporary bottom. But as you can see, you miss the huge gains. Perhaps the key is that you waited to sell until the market dropped first. If you wait until that sharp drop, then it’s probably already too late.

Remember, the only two possibilities for the stock market are all-time high or a drawdown. The highs you don’t really feel. The drawdowns are quite painful. Here’s a continuously updated chart from Doug Short illustrating the drawdowns since 2009. Lots of painful drawdowns, but during that time the market is up over 200%.

This is also why financial advisors tell you to create an investment policy statement. That’s where you write down ahead of time “If [this] happens to my portfolio, I will do [action or lack of action] because [reason].” Then when the drop actually happens, you break out that piece of paper to remind yourself what the calm, rational version of yourself would have done.

I would also add that this is why I don’t support the “100% in stocks” argument that I hear 10X more often after a long bull market. With time and pain, I have come to appreciate the warm fuzzies that come from owning a nice chunk of safe, liquid bonds.

Filed Under: Investing //

Playing “Fill-In-The-Blank” Mad Libs with Financial Buzzwords

Posted on August 18, 2015 // 2 Comments

madlibscoverAfter you spend enough time consuming financial media week after week, you start seeing patterns in the noise. I understand why of course, as creating content to feed the beast can get quite exhausting. But hopefully, by pointing out these out, you as an individual investor can realize that there may or may not be any substance behind the marketing buzzwords and short-term forecasts. Entertaining? Yes. Useful and actionable? Much less likely.

A good analogy would be with the classic word game Mad Libs, where “one player prompts others for a list of words to substitute for blanks in a story, before reading the – often comical or nonsensical – story aloud.”

Here’s how the usual “Profile of successful mutual fund manager” article usually goes. I am paraphrasing myself in 2006.

[Name of recently successful mutual fund manager] may not look the part, but at the helm of [formidable sounding firm], his [mutual fund name] has outperformed its benchmark by [big number]% annually over the past 5 years. The key is to [something skill-based like “on-the-ground” human research or complex computer algorithms] and also [something classic like “long-term perspective” or “focus on the fundamentals”]. As a result, the manager says that people should [something vague and simple for the Average Joe investor].

There are also the marketing materials coming directly from the firms themselves. Here’s an actual quote taken from a 2008 fund brochure. I’ve bolded the buzzwords for your convenience:

The OIM Core Plus Fixed Income strategy is rooted in the idea that individual security selection produces the best opportunity for risk-adjusted excess returns over time. Through an extensive, bottom-up research process, our portfolio management team focuses on optimal bond selection of investment grade corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, US Government Treasuries and taxable municipal bonds. The team employs a tightly controlled duration discipline and closely manages all portfolio risk factors. The portfolio management team’s objective is to produce predictable, consistent excess returns net of fees over the Barclay’s Capital Aggregate Bond Index.

The Oppenheimer Core Plus fund was supposed to be very conservative and was marketed to those with children within 5 years of college. What happened next? It proceeded to lose 38% of its value in 2008, while the fund’s benchmark actually rose 5.24%.

Barry Ritholz probably digests more financial media than 99.9% of folks out there, and in a recent WaPo article he pretty much nails the average CNBC guest who gets the question “Where’s the Dow going to be in a year?”:

“Our view is that the economy in the U.S. continues to _______, and we foresee _______ problems overseas ______. China is _______, and that has ramifications for the Pacific Rim’s ______. Greece is ______ in Europe. The commodity complex is causing _____ for emerging markets. But many sectors of the U.S. economy remain _______, and some sectors overseas are still _______. The valuation issue continues to be _____, and that means _____ for investors. That has ramifications for corporate profits that will be ______. We think the economy is going to do ______, and you know that means inflation will be _____, which will force interest rates to ______. Under these conditions, the sectors most likely to benefit from this are ______, ______ and ______. The companies best positioned to take advantage of this are ____, ____ and ____. Based on all that, we especially recommend an overweight allocation to ____, ____ and ____. Thus, we believe the Dow will be at ______ next year.”

There are good mutual fund managers, good financial reporters, and good hedge fund managers out there trying to do the right thing. But the problem is that when you see such meaningless words and phrases, you just can’t tell if they are good or bad. Next time you watch CNBC, Fox Business, or Bloomberg TV, see if you can match up the blanks and buzzwords. Thanks to reader CJ for the Ritholz article tip.

Filed Under: Investing, Simple Living //

Acorns App Review: Auto-Invest Your Spare Change, Now Free For Students

Posted on August 13, 2015 // 75 Comments

acorns_screen

Updated review. New Android and web versions. Added details about “students invest for free” feature (anyone 24 and under). When I wrote about WiseBanyan, I remarked that now people could start investing a portfolio of ETFs with as little as 100 bucks. Well, what about investing just 57 cents at time?

Acorns is a new smartphone app that lets you invest your “spare change” into a diversified ETF portfolio of stocks and bonds. For example, if you bought something for $10.43, the Acorns app will “round up” your purchase to $11 and invest $0.57 into a brokerage account. The idea is that these small investments will make it simple and easy for folks to start saving and investing. Thanks to reader Steven for the tip.

How does it work? You’ll need to provide them:

  • Your personal information (name, address, SSN) because this is still a real SIPC-insured brokerage account underneath.
  • Your debit or credit card login information (so they can track your transactions and calculate round ups)
  • Your bank account and routing number (so they can pull money into your investment account)

The app scans your transactions, calculates the round-ups, pulls that money from your checking account, and automatically invests it for you. You can also make one-time deposits or schedule recurring deposits on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis. The app also tries to identify “found money” like rebates and rewards which it encourages you to also invest with a quick tap. Here’s a YouTube video demo:

Fees. You do not get charged any trading commissions for your investments, which can be a big factor in traditional brokerage accounts.

As of January 1st, 2015, Acorns has changed their fees to be either $1 a month (balances under $5,000) or 0.25% of assets per year (balances above $5,000). So on a $10,000 balance that would be $25 a year. No fee on $0 balances.

As of July 8, 2015, the management fees above will be waived for all students – defined as anyone under the age of 24 or you register under a .edu e-mail address and list your employment as “student”.

Withdrawals are free, but you may incur capital gains at income tax filing time. I don’t know if they will support asset transfers via ACAT.

Portfolio details. You can choose one of five target portfolios, ranging in risk level from conservative to aggressive. Mostly the popular Modern Portfolio Theory stuff that most other automated advisors offer… not surprising as their “Nobel Prize-winning economist advisor” is Harry Markowitz, who is a paid consultant.

acorns_portfolioma

All portfolios are constructed using the following six index ETFs:

  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
  • Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB)
  • Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
  • Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
  • PIMCO Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (CORP)
  • iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)

Fractional shares are used. Dividends are reinvested. Rebalancing happens automatically. Their asset allocation has much in common with most other automated portfolios, although it is probably one of the more different ones that I’ve seen in that you have no exposure to any stocks from Developed European and Asian countries like the UK, Japan, or Australia.

I’m a little concerned about all the tax lots created when buying stocks in such small amounts. Dealing with taxes when you sell might be a headache if they don’t import directly to TurboTax or similar tax software.

Availability. You can now use Acorns in either iOS/iPhone/iPad, Android, or online web-based application. The apps are also compatible with Apple Watch and Android Gear, for those so inclined.

My thoughts. My first reaction was… that it was a great idea that I wished I thought of first. I used to participate in Bank of America’s Keep The Change program, which is similar in that it also rounds up your BofA debit card transactions to the nearest dollar but instead moves the money into a BofA savings account paying essentially zero interest. Acorns takes it further by letting you use any bank and any debit or credit card, and also lets you invest it for potentially higher returns.

In addition, I agree that Acorns will lower the psychological barrier to investing because you don’t even have to commit to $25 a week or $500 a month. You know if you can afford a gizmo or meal at $15.66, you can afford it at $16, so why not invest that spare change? The hurdle can’t get much lower than that.

At the same time, we have to be realistic. With this model how much you save depends entirely on how many purchases you make, with a theoretical average of 50 cents saved per transaction. Even buying five things a day times 50 cents is $2.50 a day or $75 a month. It’s good as a kickstart, but not nearly enough to fund a retirement.

If you want to look at it purely mathematically, a monthly fee of $1 taken out of a $75 investment ends up being like a front-end load of 1.3%. Or given the target demographic of active smartphone users, you could just look at a buck a month as something you’d otherwise blow on some Candy Crush Saga app. I do think it is smart to let anyone 24 and under or a student use it for free.

Also, don’t call it a “piggy bank”. A piggy bank means you put in a quarter, and you can take out a quarter later on. A piggy bank is a bank savings account. Acorns on the other hand is a long-term investment account that you have to be ready not to touch for at least a decade. Sure the “expected” return is 4-9% but you have a good chance of a permanent loss of money if you withdraw within the next few years. If you start using this app, please remember this.

Bottom line: Neat idea, very nicely-designed app. Free for students or anyone age 24 and under. The Acorns app may not fund your entire retirement, but it can help those that need a nudge to invest. Automation helps you keep on track. I think there should an option for an FDIC-insured high-yield savings account.

Filed Under: Investing, Reviews //

Motif Investing Review – Be Your Own Fund Portfolio Manager, Even Get Paid By Others

Posted on August 13, 2015 // 34 Comments

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Updated. Ever wanted to manage your own mutual or ETF? A new brokerage company called Motif Investing will let you do just that. One of their pitches is that you can invest in a group of up to 30 individual stocks that fit into a motif or theme like “Housing Recovery” or “Lots of Likes” (companies that have the most Likes on Facebook). You can buy the entire basket of stocks with just one $9.95 commission, with no ongoing management fees. The minimum motif investment amount is $250.

My initial impression was that it felt a bit too trendy and gimmicky to recommend as a long-term investment. Indeed, I don’t really care how many Facebook Likes a company has, and I doubt I would buy stocks based on my love of pets or my political views. It’s just not my style.

Since they let you customize the basket, anyone could essentially make their own ETF or mutual fund with ZERO expense ratio. You can’t track a broad index like the S&P 500, but if you do have a basket of stocks that you buy regularly, this would be a very cost-efficient way of doing it. You can add or remove stocks, and adjust the relative weighting of each stock in the motif. Here’s a screenshot (click to enlarge):

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Horizon Motifs are preset “target date” motifs which are commision-free and with zero management fee. There are 9 different Horizon Motifs – you pick one of three time horizons (1 year, 5 year, or 15 year) and one of three risk levels (conservative, moderate, or aggressive). Kind of like a Target Date 20XX mutual fund, kind of like a roboadvisor. If you buy these specific portfolios, they waive their $9.95 commission. More information at this post: Horizon Motif Review: Commission-Free, No Advisory Fee, Index ETF Portfolios.

You can even make money when others use your Motif Portfolio with the Creator Royalty Program. Every time a client makes a $9.95 trade using your Motif, you’ll get a $1 royalty fee. For example, after reading an article about the Voya Corporate Leaders Trust Fund which bought 30 stocks in 1935 and then never sold them (but still charges a 0.52% management fee every year), I created the Depression Survivors Motif which does basically the same thing except it has zero management fees.

So far, I’ve made one entire dollar! 🙂 Recent performance has been abysmal due to recent oil price drops, as Chevron and ExxonMobil are significant holdings.

motifnew3

My plan is to someday create a custom basket of dividend-oriented stocks that hopefully will provide a long-term stream of growing income. For example, look at the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) that holds 60 highest-yielding stocks of the S&P 1500 that have raised their dividends every year for the past 25 years. It’s a nice idea, but it leaves out some good companies and the 0.35% expense ratio eats up 10% of the original yield of the underlying companies. Why not hold most of these directly, remove some of the ones you don’t like, and keep the 0.35% as extra return for yourself?

Motif also uses dollar-based trades, which means every penny is invested, while they keep track of any fractional shares for you. No maintenance fees, no inactivity fees. In many ways, this is similar to the unlimited plan at Folio Investing, but Motif Investing has the potential to be a lot cheaper ($10 per motif trade with no minimum trade requirement vs. $29 every month for Folio) and is closer to a ETF in that they do real-time market trades. You can still do regular real-time trades of individual stocks for $4.95 per trade. Currently there is no automatic dividend reinvestment, the dividends go to cash and you reinvest yourself as desired.

Update: As of 8/13/15, Motif is adding the following features:

  • Dollar-based, real-time purchases of single stocks and ETFs (in addition to whole shares).
  • Stop loss orders by whole or fractional shares.
  • Create your own stock or ETF watch list.

New customer bonus. Right now, Motif Investing is offering new customers up to a $150 cash bonus when you open with $2,000+ and make 5 trades. If you make 1 trade, you’ll get $50. 3 trades will get $75.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

Weight Management vs. Money Management Advice Similarities, Revisited

Posted on August 12, 2015 // 2 Comments

nodietI’ve written previously about the importance of permanent habit change in both managing your finances and your body weight. After finishing Smart People Don’t Diet by Charlotte Markey and then reviewing my Kindle highlights, please allow me to compare weight management and money management one more time.

I’m going to keep it simple; I’ll quote exact sentences from the book, and then tweak them ever-so-slightly to magically transform them into personal finance wisdom. Here’s a quote about her overall reason for writing this book:

Psychologists like me have been doing research about eating and weight loss for over a hundred years, and thousands of studies about these issues have been published. Scientists in related fields such as nutrition, medicine, and community health have also been studying and publishing about these issues for a very long time. And yet it seems that the most marketable and even outlandish ideas are what get the most attention when it comes to weight loss—not necessarily the ideas that are really going to work!

Here’s my Mad Libs version (all changes are bolded):

Finance academics like me have been doing research about investing for over a hundred years, and thousands of studies about these issues have been published. Scientists in related fields such as economics and behavioral psychology have also been studying and publishing about these issues for a very long time. And yet it seems that the most marketable and even outlandish ideas are what get the most attention when it comes to investing—not necessarily the ideas that are really going to work!

Sounds about right to me. Now, the recommended first step is to track your eating with a food diary:

Phase 1 is all about taking inventory and getting to know yourself—a critical first step. There should be no sense of deprivation when you follow the instructions for Phase 1. Phase 2 is when you’ll start to actually make changes to your eating behaviors.

In the same way, my recommended first step has been to track your spending with a daily log. There is virtually no change needed!

Phase 1 is all about taking inventory and getting to know yourself—a critical first step. There should be no sense of deprivation when you follow the instructions for Phase 1. Phase 2 is when you’ll start to actually make changes to your spending behaviors.

However, many successful people don’t need to keep up this daily tracking forever.

This is all common sense, but it is also supported by research: keeping a mental record of what you eat, or “counting” what you eat, is exhausting. This is one reason I don’t recommend constantly counting calories or counting anything as part of a long-term approach to weight management: food choices shouldn’t add to your mental fatigue.

The key is to measure your baseline and then make incremental but permanent changes. Nowadays, I still add up my expenses at the end of each month, but I don’t track anything on a day-to-day basis.

This is all common sense, but it is also supported by research: keeping a mental record of what you spend, or “counting” what you spend, is exhausting. This is one reason I don’t recommend constantly tracking every expense or counting anything as part of a long-term approach to money management: financial choices shouldn’t add to your mental fatigue.

Here are tips on creating better habits that won’t suck up all your willpower:

You don’t need to squeeze your own oranges to make juice; just eat an orange. You don’t need to make homemade bread; just buy whole-grain bread. It is okay to rely on frozen fruits or veggies to ensure that you eat enough each day. If you want to change your habits for the long-term, stick to a plan that is simple and create food routines. Simple is sustainable.

Simple is sustainable, I like that phrase!

You don’t need to analyze the balance sheets of individual companies; just buy an index fund. You don’t need to remember to manually save every month; make it automatic with scheduled online transfers to your IRA and/or 401k. It is okay to rely on Mint.com or PersonalCapital.com and credit/debit cards to track your overall spending. If you want to change your habits for the long-term, stick to a plan that is simple and create financial routines. Simple is sustainable.

Finally, a nice little summary. (The book has a lot of good advice, but it is a little repetitive.)

What I recommend to people to help them to lose weight is not always sexy, but it is what works. Weight-loss books change; most of them don’t stick around because they don’t work. To be healthy and lose weight, you have to change your habits. You also have to understand why you are eating. Convenience, habits, and our emotions are all an important part of our food choices.

What I recommend to people to help them to save and invest wisely is not always sexy, but it is what works. Personal finance and investing books change; most of them don’t stick around because they don’t work. To save prudently and achieve financial freedom, you have to change your habits. You also have to understand why you are earning and spending. Convenience, habits, and our emotions are all an important part of our financial choices.

Filed Under: Behavioral Economics, Investing //

Portfolio Charts Visualization Tool: Returns vs. Time (Holding Period)

Posted on August 10, 2015 // 2 Comments

When investing in stocks and bonds, it is important to take a long-term perspective. We’ve all heard that phrase. A new tool called PortfolioCharts.com lets you create charts that make it easier to visualize the relationship between returns and holding periods. Created by a fellow named Tyler, found via The Reformed Broker.

With the Pixel chart, you can customize any asset allocation and see that portfolio mix’s returns over a multitude of timeframes. Here’s the chart for The Swensen Portfolio, which is the closest “lazy portfolio” to my personal portfolio – 30% US Total, 15% Foreign Developed, 5% Emerging Market, 20 US REIT, 15% 5-Year Treasuries, 15% TIPS.

portchart1

You can see that depending on your starting year, the returns over the next 1-9 year period could be pretty rough. But as long as you held for 10 years or more, you always got a positive real return above inflation. You can also see that the often-promised 5% real returns aren’t always guaranteed, although historically if you held on for 20+ years your odds were pretty good.

You may recall a similar style of chart from the NYT and Crestmont Research which includes additional data going back to 1920:

nytcrestmont

My favorite style is the Funnel chart:

The Funnel chart shows the changing uncertainty of compound annual growth rates over time. This demonstrates how long you may need to hold a portfolio to experience the average long-term returns it advertises. It also provides a nice snapshot of the range of 1-year volatility.

Here’s the Funnel for the same Swensen Portfolio:

portchart2

The funnel chart also supports the notion – in an even simpler way – that if you can take a long-term perspective, your risk of losing money should decrease. Here’s a similar chart from the classic investing book A Random Walk Down Wall Street that was one of my early blog posts:

randomwalk_stocktime

Finally, the Hurricane chart allows you to simulate what would have happened to your portfolio balance if you made annual withdrawals, such as in a retirement scenario.

Warren Buffett is another famous supporter of taking the long-term view. From a recent CNBC interview:

Buffett, who looks to buy stocks or business for their long-term prospects, said recent weakness in the market does not concern him.

“Stocks are going to be higher, and perhaps a lot higher 10 years from now, 20 years from now,” he said, adding that’s why he does not try to time the market.

Hopefully for those investors with a long runway ahead of them, this new tool will help you view your portfolio in a more patient manner. I’ll try to remember it when the next market panic arrives.

Filed Under: Investing, Tools & Calculators //

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs & The Portfolio Investment Pyramid

Posted on July 30, 2015 // 4 Comments

Yesterday, I looked back at extending the Maslow Hierarchy of Needs to Personal Finance. The basic idea of the triangle or pyramid is that lower needs must be satisfied before the higher needs can be addressed. For example, one must first obtain food and water before worrying about protecting my property. In terms of personal finance, you need to cover your food and shelter bills before worrying about homeowner’s insurance premiums.

Now let’s explore how investment professionals have extended this concept to portfolio investing. Again, the bottom level is the most important and forms the “base” of a solid portfolio. After that, you can move on the next concern. You can see that there is debate even amongst experts as to relative importance.

Here’s Christine Benz of Morningstar in How Do Your Financial Priorities Stack Up With Our Pyramid?

pyramid_morn

Here’s Morgan Housel of Fool.com in The Hierarchy of Investor Needs:

pyramid_housel

Here’s Cullen Roche of Pragmatic Capitalism in Thoughts on the Hierarchy of Investor Needs:

pyramid_roche

The four common factors are:

  • Security Selection
  • Tax Efficiency
  • Investor Behavior
  • Asset Allocation

Two out of the three proposed pyramids above have Investor Behavior as the most important. I can see how this factor has the greatest impact on real-world returns, but it is also the hardest to really quantify ahead of time. You can write down on a piece of paper “I will not panic during the next crisis but will do XX instead” but that doesn’t mean you’ll actually do it (though it will probably help on average). In addition, it is also intertwined with asset allocation since the less your portfolio value drops in a bear market, the more likely you’ll stick with your plan. Meanwhile, you can quantify fees and transaction costs quite easily.

I think this debate makes for interesting conversation for investing geeks like myself, but in the end a good investor would address all of these factors. For example, I would never put off examining fees just because it is at the top of such a pyramid.

Filed Under: Investing //

Owning a World Market-Cap Weighting of Gold

Posted on July 21, 2015 // 10 Comments

2015goldGold is an asset class that is part commodity, part currency, and part insurance policy. As I write this, gold prices are at a 5-year low. I own a little physical gold for cultural reasons, but I don’t consider it part of my asset allocation and I place it in the “too hard to stick with during prolonged underperformance” category.

In a recent WSJ article (paywall) by Jason Zweig, he shares his own opinion (everyone’s got one) while adding this interesting data point:

Laurens Swinkels, a senior researcher at Norges Bank Investment Management in Oslo, reckons that the total market value of the world’s financial assets at the end of 2014 was about $102.7 trillion. The World Gold Council estimates that the world’s total quantity of gold held for investment was about $1.4 trillion as of late 2014. So, if you held the same proportion of gold as the world’s investors as a whole, you would allocate 1.3% of your investment portfolio to it.

Many index funds are constructed by comparing their market-capitalizations, or the total value of all their shares. Apple is currently worth $760 billion dollars, which is 4% of the total value combined of all the companies in the S&P 500 combined. So if you own an S&P 500 Index fund, 4% of your money is in AAPL shares.

So what if you held a world market-cap weighting of gold? If you had a $100,000 portfolio, 1.3% would work out to $1,300, which you could round off to a single 1 oz. gold American Eagle. You could buy gold in another form, but don’t they look pretty? They also make 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, and 1/10 oz versions. This fake gold coin tester is cool, but is rather expensive if you’re just buying a few coins.

If you had a $1,000,000 portfolio, 1.3% still only works out to 10 American Eagles, altogether weighing less than a pound and something you could still easily hide in your clothing as you escaped to the island nation of St. Kitts (you did buy a citizenship just in case, didn’t you?) just before the apocalypse.

But seriously, it could be that a 1.3% holding is just about the right amount. It’s something, a little exposure, a little insurance policy, something most people could keep in physical form if they preferred with no ongoing storage or management costs. You can justify it as part of the world’s investable market. But it’s not too much, not enough to worry about the price of gold.

Filed Under: Investing //
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