Morningstar Top 529 College Savings Plan Rankings 2019

Posted on November 12, 2019 // 3 Comments

Investment research firm Morningstar has released their annual 529 College Savings Plans analyst ratings for 2019. While the full ratings and plan analysis for every individual plan are restricted to paid premium members, the vast majority are mediocre and can be ignored. You choices are pretty much (1) your in-state plan for the tax benefits or (2) the best overall plan if you don’t have good in-state perks.

Here are the Gold-rated plans for 2019 (no particular order). Morningstar uses a Gold, Silver, or Bronze rating scale for the top plans and Neutral or Negative for the rest.

The top 3 were Gold last year as well. California Scholarshare is a new addition, upgraded from Silver. The Vanguard 529 Plan from Nevada was removed, downgraded to Silver. The reason stated was because their expenses were low, but not as low as the rest of the Gold-rated plans above.

Here are the consistently top-rated plans from 2011-2019. This means they were rated either Gold or Silver (or equivalent) for every year the rankings were done from 2011 through 2018. These were also the same as last year. No particular order.

  • T. Rowe Price College Savings Plan, Alaska
  • Maryland College Investment Plan
  • Vanguard 529 College Savings Plan, Nevada
  • CollegeAdvantage 529 Savings Plan, Ohio
  • CollegeAmerica Plan, Virginia (Advisor-sold)
  • My529, formerly the Utah Educational Savings Plan

The “Five P” criteria.

  • People. Who’s behind the plans? Who are the investment consultants picking the underlying investments? Who are the mutual fund managers?
  • Process. Are the asset-allocation glide paths and funds chosen for the age-based options based on solid research? Whether active or passive, how is it implemented?
  • Parent. How is the quality of the program manager (often an asset-management company or board of trustees which has a main role in the investment choices and pricing)? Also refers to state officials and their policies.
  • Performance. Has the plan delivered strong risk-adjusted performance, both during the recent volatility and in the long-term?
  • Price. Includes factors like asset-weighted expense ratios and in-state tax benefits.

State-specific tax benefits. Remember to first consider your state-specific tax benefits via the tools from Morningstar, SavingForCollege, or Vanguard. Morningstar estimates that an upfront tax break of at least 5% can make it worth investing in your in-state plan even if it is not a top plan (assuming that is required to get the tax benefit).

If you don’t have anything compelling available, anyone can open a 529 plan from any state. I would pick from the ones listed above. Also, if you have money in an in-state plan now but your situation changes, you can roll over your funds into another 529 from any state. (Watch out for tax-benefit recapture if you got a tax break initially.)

My picks. Overall, the plans are getting better and most Gold/Silver picks are solid. If your state doesn’t offer a significant tax break, I have recommended these two plans to my friends and family:

  • Nevada 529 Plan has low costs, solid automated glide paths, a variety of Vanguard investment options, and long-term commitment to consistently lowering costs as their assets grow. (It is not the rock-bottom cheapest, but this is often because other plans don’t offer much international exposure, which usually costs more.) This is only plan that Vanguard puts their name on, and you can manage it within your Vanguard.com account. This is the keep-it-simple option.
  • Utah 529 plan has low costs, investments from Vanguard and DFA, and has highly-customizable glide paths. Over the last few years, the Utah plan has also shown a consistent effort towards passing on future cost savings to clients. This is the option for folks that enjoy DIY asset allocation. Since I like to DIY, the vast majority of my family’s college savings is in this plan.

I feel that a consistent history of consumer-first practices is important. Sure, you can move your funds if needed, but wouldn’t you rather watch your current plan just keep getting better every year?

Filed Under: College & Education, Investing //

Best Interest Rates on Cash – November 2019

Posted on November 5, 2019 // 7 Comments

Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash for November 2019, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. There was another Fed rate cut last week. I track these rates because I keep a full 12 months of expenses as a cash cushion and also invest in longer-term CDs (often at lesser-known credit unions) when they yield more than bonds. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to get an idea of how much extra interest you’d earn if you are moving money between accounts. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 11/5/19.

High-yield savings accounts
While the huge megabanks like to get away with 0.01% APY, it’s easy to open a new “piggy-back” savings account and simply move some funds over from your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I include banks with a history of competitive rates. Some banks will bait you with a temporary top rate and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. My eBanc has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 2.15% APY with a $10,000 minimum deposit. Marcus Bank has a 7-month No Penalty CD at 2.00% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. Ally Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 1.90% APY with a $25,000 minimum deposit. CIT Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 1.85% APY with a $1,000 minimum deposit. You may wish to open multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • Total Direct Bank has a 12-month CD at 2.36% APY ($25,000 minimum) with an early withdrawal penalty of 3 months of interest.

Money market mutual funds + Ultra-short bond ETFs
If you like to keep cash in a brokerage account, beware that many brokers pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). The following money market and ultra-short bond funds are not FDIC-insured, but may be a good option if you have idle cash and cheap/free commissions.

  • Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund currently pays an 1.85% SEC yield. The default sweep option is the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund, which has an SEC yield of 1.76%. You can manually move the money over to Prime if you meet the $3,000 minimum investment.
  • Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund currently pays 2.09% SEC yield ($3,000 min) and 2.19% SEC Yield ($50,000 min). The average duration is ~1 year, so there is more interest rate risk.
  • The PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Bond ETF (MINT) has a 2.19% SEC yield and the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) has a 2.30% SEC yield while holding a portfolio of investment-grade bonds with an average duration of ~6 months.

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes.

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 11/5/19, a 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 1.56% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 1.62% annualized interest.
  • The Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF (GBIL) has a 1.83% SEC yield and the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a 1.66% SEC yield. GBIL appears to have a slightly longer average maturity than BIL.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. There are annual purchase limits. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest.

  • “I Bonds” bought between November 2019 and April 2020 will earn a 2.22% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. More info here.
  • In mid-April 2020, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will have another post up at that time.

Prepaid Cards with Attached Savings Accounts
A small subset of prepaid debit cards have an “attached” FDIC-insured savings account with exceptionally high interest rates. The negatives are that balances are capped, and there are many fees that you must be careful to avoid (lest they eat up your interest). Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others do. There is a long list of previous offers that have already disappeared with little notice. I don’t personally recommend nor use any of these anymore.

  • The only notable card left in this category is Mango Money at 6% APY on up to $2,500, but there are many hoops to jump through. Requirements include $1,500+ in “signature” purchases and a minimum balance of $25.00 at the end of the month.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops, and if you make a mistake you won’t earn any interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others do. Rates can also drop to near-zero quickly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling. I don’t use any of these anymore, but the Orion offer is worth consideration.

  • Consumers Credit Union Free Rewards Checking (my review) has up to 5.09% APY on balances up to $10,000 if you meet make $500+ in ACH deposits, 12 debit card “signature” purchases, and spend $1,000 on their credit card each month. Orion FCU Premium Checking (my review)has 4.00% APY on balances up to $30,000 if you meet make $500+ in direct deposits and 8 debit card “signature” purchases each month. Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.
  • If you’re looking for a high-interest checking account without debit card transaction requirements, the rate won’t nearly as high, but take a look at MemoryBank at 0.90% APY.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • You could build a CD ladder at Pennsylvania State Employees Credit Union (PSECU) at 3.00% APY for 5-year, 2.75% APY for 4-year, 3.25% APY for 3-year, 3.00% APY for 2-year, and 1.95% APY for 1-year. Early withdrawal penalty: Up to 2-year CD is 90 days of interest. 3 to 5 year CD is 180 days of interest. Some of these are limited-time specials. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization ($10 one-time fee).
  • You could also build a CD ladder at current rates of First National Bank of America at 2.55% APY for 5-year, 2.50% APY for 4-year, 2.40% APY for 3-year, 2.37% APY for 2-year, and 2.35% APY for 1-year.
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. The rates are not competitive right now. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs listed by Fidelity.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk, but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10+ years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. As of this writing, I am seeing no inventory on 7-year and 10-year CDs. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs from Fidelity.
  • How about two decades? Series EE Savings Bonds are not indexed to inflation, but they have a unique guarantee that the value will double in value in 20 years, which equals a guaranteed return of 3.5% a year. However, if you don’t hold for that long, you’ll be stuck with the normal rate which is quite low (currently a sad 0.10% rate). I view this as a huge early withdrawal penalty. You could also view it as a hedge against prolonged deflation, but only if you can hold on for 20 years. As of 10/2/19, the 20-year Treasury Bond rate was 1.90%.

All rates were checked as of 11/5/19.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Savings I Bonds November 2019 Interest Rate: 2.02% Inflation + 0.20% Fixed Rate

Posted on November 4, 2019 // Leave a Comment

sb_poster

Updated November 2019. The fixed rate will be 0.20% for I bonds issued from November 1, 2019 through April 30th, 2020. This is a drop from the previous fixed rate of 0.50%. The variable inflation-indexed rate for this 6-month period will be 2.02% (as was predicted). The total rate on any specific bond is the sum of the fixed and variable rates, changing every 6 months. If you buy a new bond in between November 2019 and April 2020, you’ll get 2.22% for the first 6 months. This isn’t that bad given the recent rate cuts. See you again in mid-April for the next early prediction for May 2020.

Original post 10/14/19:

Savings I Bonds are a unique, low-risk investment backed by the US Treasury that pay out a variable interest rate linked to inflation. You could own them as an alternative to bank certificates of deposit (they are liquid after 12 months) or bonds in your portfolio.

New inflation numbers were just announced at BLS.gov, which allows us to make an early prediction of the November 2019 savings bond rates a couple of weeks before the official announcement on the 1st. This also allows the opportunity to predict what an October 2019 savings bond purchase will yield over the next 12 months, instead of just 6 months.

New inflation rate prediction. March 2019 CPI-U was 254.202. September 2019 CPI-U was 256.759, for a semi-annual increase of 1.01%. Using the official formula, the variable component of interest rate for the next 6 month cycle will be 2.02%. You add the fixed and variable rates to get the total interest rate. If you have an older savings bond, your fixed rate may be very different than one from recent years.

Tips on purchase and redemption. You can’t redeem until 12 months have gone by, and any redemptions within 5 years incur an interest penalty of the last 3 months of interest. A known “trick” with I-Bonds is that if you buy at the end of the month, you’ll still get all the interest for the entire month as if you bought it in the beginning of the month. It’s best to give yourself a few business days of buffer time. If you miss the cutoff, your effective purchase date will be bumped into the next month.

Buying in October 2019. If you buy before the end of October, the fixed rate portion of I-Bonds will be 0.50%. You will be guaranteed a total interest rate of 1.90% for the next 6 months (0.50 + 1.40). For the 6 months after that, the total rate will be 0.50 + 2.02 = 2.52%.

Let’s look at a worst-case scenario, where you hold for the minimum of one year and pay the 3-month interest penalty. If you theoretically buy on October 31st, 2019 and sell on October 1, 2020, you’ll earn a ~1.72% annualized return for an 11-month holding period, for which the interest is also exempt from state income taxes. If you held for three months longer, you’d be looking at a ~1.89% annualized return for a 14-month holding period (assuming my math is correct). Compare with the best interest rates as of October 2019.

Buying in November 2019. If you buy in November 2019, you will get 2.02% plus a newly-set fixed rate for the first 6 months. The new fixed rate is unknown, but is loosely linked to the real yield of short-term TIPS. In the past 6 months, the 5-year TIPS yield has dropped to about 0.20% and has been close to zero. My best guess is that it will be 0.10%. Every six months, your rate will adjust to your fixed rate (set at purchase) plus a variable rate based on inflation.

If you have an existing I-Bond, the rates reset every 6 months depending on your purchase month. Your bond rate = your specific fixed rate (set at purchase) + variable rate (minimum floor of 0%).

Buy now or wait? In the short-term, these I bond rates will probably not beat a top CD. If you intend to be a long-term holder, a factor to consider is that the October fixed rate is 0.5% and that it will likely drop at least a little in November in my opinion. You may want to lock in that higher fixed rate now.

Unique features. I have a separate post on reasons to own Series I Savings Bonds, including inflation protection, tax deferral, exemption from state income taxes, and educational tax benefits.

Over the years, I have accumulated a nice pile of I-Bonds and now consider it part of the inflation-linked bond allocation inside my long-term investment portfolio.

Annual purchase limits. The annual purchase limit is now $10,000 in online I-bonds per Social Security Number. For a couple, that’s $20,000 per year. Buy online at TreasuryDirect.gov, after making sure you’re okay with their security protocols and user-friendliness. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper bonds using your tax refund with IRS Form 8888. If you have children, you may be able to buy additional savings bonds by using a minor’s Social Security Number.

For more background, see the rest of my posts on savings bonds.

[Image: 1946 Savings Bond poster from US Treasury – source]

Filed Under: Banking, Investing, Savings Bonds //

S&P 500 vs. International Stock Funds: Revenue Breakdown By World Region

Posted on October 30, 2019 // 3 Comments

One of the common reasons given for only investing the S&P 500 or only US-based companies is that the businesses operate globally. “McDonald’s and Coca-Cola sell burgers and soda everywhere. Disney is everywhere. ExxonMobil sells energy around the world.” I understand the sentiment, but how about some real numbers? The Morningstar article Investing Close to Home Is Overrated breaks down the revenue by region for some popular ETFs that track broad US and International stock indexes.

A few quick takeaways:

  • Companies in the S&P 500 or Total US index get about 65% of their revenue from the United States and 35% from the rest of the world.
  • Companies in a Total World ex-US index only get about 15% of their revenue from the United States and 85% from the rest of the world.

The S&P 500 does derive a decent chunk of its profits from international sources. However, you’re still missing a lot of exposure from the rest of the world.

Now, I happen to agree that you don’t “need” to own an international index fund. The Dow Jones index has taught us that even a poorly-constructed funky index that tracks 30 human-picked companies based on the numerical price of a single share (not total market value) can work out over the long run. By extension, if you only own the S&P 500 and hold on for 30 years, you’ll probably turn out fine as well.

However, I still choose to add international stocks to my portfolio. Why? The holding on part. I expect international stocks again outperform US stocks for years in a row. From a previous post US vs. International Stocks: Historical Cycles of Outperformance:

us_intl_cycle

Nobody knows the future, and so there is no single “right” answer. From No Consensus on International Stocks: Make Any Decision, Just Stick With It:

international3

Bottom line. Owning just US stocks might work out just fine, but it’s still not the same as owning international stocks. The world will change in many unexpected ways during next 50 years and my investing life is easier when I own the entire haystack.

Filed Under: Investing //

Mental Model For Expenses: Past, Present, and Future (With Animated GIFs!)

Posted on October 21, 2019 // 2 Comments

The theory behind financial independence is simple. Spend less, save more, invest it into income-producing assets. The reality is complex, full of daily decisions about balancing income and spending. The Morningstar article (yes, M* is writing about early retirement too now) A Simple Plan for Financial Independence presents this simplified graphic of your “personal economy”.

Income can come from labor, capital, or land. Expenses can be put toward your past (debt), present, or future (investing in capital or land).

I’ve been thinking about this “past, present, and future” mental model for expenses, it meshes will with the simple rules that I want to teach my children: Avoid debt whenever possible, and seek out income-producing assets.

Present. There is countless advice to save money on current expenses. Call it prioritizing, call it frugality, call it whatever. These are important, but I’d rather focus on the added ideas of past and future.

Past. While debt is an important part of the economy, I hate that going into debt for non-essentials is so readily accepted in today’s society. Using home equity lines of credit for a kitchen remodels. Credit cards for vacations. The entire microloans trend where you buy a $100 pair of jeans for $10 a month times 12 months ($120) is a dangerous mind game. Debt is having compound interest work against you, and thus making someone else rich. Debt should not be normalized. Debt is an emergency!

via GIPHY

Future. If you look at people who have really achieved financial freedom, where they truly spend the day doing whatever they want and without money worries, they have all have collected a big pile of income-producing assets. It could be rental property, commercial real estate, a laundromat/car wash/business, dividend-paying stocks, municipal bonds, a pension, Social Security or even just bank CDs if you have enough. In most cases, they collected them with purpose. They didn’t just put the minimum into their 401(k) and call it a day. They would shovel whatever extra money they had into their favorite money-making machine. When I buy more stocks, I see a future income stream:

via GIPHY

When you buy one of these income-producing assets, it should get you excited!

via GIPHY

I’m still not sure exactly how to create this distaste for debt and this desire for money factories, but I’m working on it. If you have these two in place, that should help with everything else – earning more income with labor, spending less on the present.

Oh, and here’s a funny-but-sad representation of the paycheck-to-paycheck lifestyle.

via GIPHY

Filed Under: Budgeting, Debt, Frugal Living, Investing //

Super Simple Portfolio Rebalancing: Check Once A Year, Rebalance Every 6 Years On Average!

Posted on October 18, 2019 // 6 Comments

All this talk about portfolio rebalancing is to improve your risk-adjusted return, not to maximize absolute returns. You are trying to squeeze the most return out of a given degree of risk. Otherwise, if you do nothing eventually whatever has a higher return (historically always stocks) will outperform and take over the portfolio.

Here’s another take on the proper frequency of rebalancing your portfolio to your target asset allocation. Vanguard Research has a new paper called Getting back on track: A guide to smart rebalancing [pdf]. The chart below shows the results of various combinations of time and threshold rebalancing strategies on a traditional 60/40 portfolio from 1926-2018.

I added the yellow highlights, which focus on the two extremes:

  • If you rebalanced every single month for 93 years straight (1,116 times!), your result would have been a 8.20% annualized tax-adjusted return and 11.7% volatility. Sharpe ratio 0.50.
  • If you checked in your portfolio only once per year, and then only actually took actions if your target percentage was off by 10% of more (i.e. 50/50 or 70/30), you would have rebalanced only 14 times over 93 years. That an average of once every 6.6 years! Your result would have been a 8.20% tax-adjusted return and 11.6% volatility. Sharpe ratio 0.50.

My kids like to dance to a popular kids YouTube channel called Super Simple Songs. I think the last method should be called Super Simple Rebalancing. You just need to make sure you’re taking action on those rare trigger dates.

Historically, your risk-adjusted return was a bit better if you rebalanced at a 5% threshold with quarterly checkups (8.31% with 11.6% volatility), but there is no guarantee that this small edge will apply in the future. However, this does explain why Vanguard uses the 5%/quarterly method in their paid portfolio management program Vanguard Personal Advisor Services. Historically, this has worked out to rebalancing once every two years on average, which isn’t so bad either.

This last sentence in the paper is a good summary of tax-aware investing:

Investors may also be able to improve portfolio performance, without sacrificing risk control, by practicing tax-efficient rebalancing through the use of tax-advantaged accounts, rebalancing with portfolio income, incorporating tax- and cost-sensitivity awareness into their rebalancing decision, and gifting overweighted and highly appreciated securities.

Bottom line. You could have rebalanced 1,000+ times from 1926-2018, or you could have just done it 14 times and it really wouldn’t have made much difference. The key is to pick a simple, consistent rebalancing rule and stick with it!

Filed Under: Investing, Taxes //

Best Brokerage and IRA Transfer Bonuses – October 2019

Posted on October 10, 2019 // 7 Comments

Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, Interactive Brokers, Ally Invest all now offer free stock trades. Vanguard offers free trades on all ETFs, not just their own. The new differentiators are things like user interface, customer service, and interest on cash sweep accounts. How about some cash in my pocket too?

The recent shake-up is a reminder brokers are transitioning to maximizing assets under management, as opposed to attracting traders that rack up those commissions. You can often get a cash bonus for switching teams, based on the size of assets that you move over. This usually involves an ACAT transfer of your securities, including tax cost basis history. Here’s a current list of the top brokerage transfer bonuses, along with some additional commentary on Fidelity and Vanguard.

Schwab

  • Link: Up to $2,500 bonus offer
  • $200 bonus for $50k, $300 for $100k, $600 for $250k, $1,200 for $500k, $2,500 for $1m+.
  • New or existing customers moving over new assets. Valid for retail brokerage accounts.
  • Make a qualifying net deposit of cash or securities within 45 days.
  • Maintain net deposit amount (less any market losses) for one year.

TD Ameritrade

  • Link: Up to $1,000 bonus offer
  • Note this matches or is better than their standard up to $600 offer.
  • $100 bonus for $25k, $200 for $50k, $500 for $100k, $1,000 for $250k+.
  • Valid for new taxable or IRA accounts.
  • Open by 1/30/20, funded with new funds or securities within 60 days.
  • Maintain net deposit amount (less any market losses) for 12 months.

Chase YouInvest + Sapphire Banking

  • Link: $1,000 Sapphire offer / Standard offer
  • Sapphire offer: New or existing customers. Brokerage and/or IRA. Must transfer a total of $75,000 or more in new money or securities into eligible Chase checking, savings and/or investment accounts. You must open a new Sapphire banking account by 11/19/2019, complete the $75k transfer within 45 days of opening, and maintain that balance for at least 90 days from the date of funding. Get $1,000 bonus.
  • Standard offer: $200 for $25k, $300 for $100k, $625 for $250k. Transfer within 45 days, maintain for 90 days.

Merrill Edge

  • Link: Up to $1,000 bonus offer / $900 Preferred Rewards offer / $600 Standard offer
  • $100 bonus for $20k, $250 for $50k, $500 for $100k, $1,000 for $200k+ in new assets to BofA/Merrill. If you have a lot more than $200k, you can call them at 888-637-3343 for a custom offer.
  • Expires October 17, 2019. This is a special link that is more than the standard offer. The page says “This limited time offer is valid only for MoneyShow attendees.” but reports of enforcement vary. If they do enforce, you may have to provide proof of attendance to San Francisco Money Show or accept the standard bonus amount.
  • Up to 100 free trades per month with Bank of America Preferred Rewards program.
  • Valid for new IRA or retail brokerage accounts (CMA).
  • Make a qualifying net deposit of cash or securities within 45 days.
  • Maintain net deposit amount (less any market losses) for 180 days.

E-Trade

  • Link: Up to $2,500 bonus offer
  • $200 bonus for $25k, $300 for $100k, $600 for $250k, $1,200 for $500k, $2,500 for $1m+.
  • New non-retirement brokerage accounts only.
  • Open by 12/31/19, funded with new funds or securities within 60 days.
  • Maintain net deposit amount (less any market losses) for 6 months.

Ally Invest

  • Link: Up to $3,500 bonus offer
  • $50 bonus for $10k, $200 for $25k, $300 for $100k, $600 for $250k, $1,200 for $500k, $2,500 for $1m, $3,500 for $2m+.
  • New non-retirement brokerage accounts only. (You must not have closed an account within the last 90 days.)
  • Open by 12/31/19, funded with new funds or securities within 60 days.
  • Maintain net deposit amount (less any market losses) for 300 days past bonus deposit (~370 days after opening).

Fidelity

  • Fidelity used to offer a variety of transfer bonuses, but they didn’t do a good job of curbing abuse and some folks got multiple bonuses without actually bringing in new money. Right now, I can’t find any transfer bonus links. Instead, here are a few reasons why you might want to move your money to Fidelity anyway (you can try out the other brokers above and take their money for doing so first).
  • Fidelity does not sell equity order flow to market makers and high-frequency traders.
  • Fidelity offers a relatively competitive default cash sweep option. As of 10/10/19, the Vanguard Federal Money Market fund pays 1.90% SEC yield, the Fidelity Government Money Market fund pays 1.58% SEC yield, Schwab pays 0.12%, TD Ameritrade pays 0.01%, and E-Trade pays 0.01%.
  • Fidelity has a variety of in-house stock and bond mutual fund options, which trade with no transaction fee at Fidelity and now have no minimum purchase amounts.
  • In my experience, Fidelity has had the most knowledgable customer service reps.

Vanguard

  • Vanguard has never offered a transfer bonus, to my knowledge. Instead, here are a few reasons why you might want to move your money to Vanguard anyway (you can try out the other brokers above and take their money for doing so first).
  • Vanguard has the most competitive default cash sweep option. As of 10/10/19, the Vanguard Federal Money Market fund pays 1.90% SEC yield, the Fidelity Government Money Market fund pays 1.58% SEC yield, Schwab pays 0.12%, TD Ameritrade pays 0.01%, and E-Trade pays 0.01%. This may or may not matter to you, depending on your idle cash balances.
  • Vanguard does not offer free trades on all stocks, but they do offer free trades on 1,700+ ETFs from any provider. Vanguard is not really built for heavy traders of individual stocks.
  • Vanguard has a variety of in-house stock and bond mutual fund options, which trade with no transaction fee at Vanguard.

Transfer notes.

  • Many brokers will charge an “Outgoing ACAT fee” of $50 to $150 when you leave them. I recommend contacting your destination broker and asking them to reimburse you for this fee. If you qualify for one of these bonuses, your account is probably big enough for them to consider it. You may have to send them a statement showing the fee.
  • Before moving, I would download all your old statements and tax cost basis information to make sure it transfers over correctly.
  • An ACAT transfer can take a week or so to complete, so you won’t be able to make any sell transactions during that time.
  • Consider performing a “partial” ACAT transfer where you only move over specifically designated shares (ex. only all 455 shares of BRKB) if you wish to keep some of your original brokerage account open. I would still transfer over all shares of any specific ticker, so that the tax cost basis carries over neatly.
Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

Robinhood’s New Savings Account is FDIC-Insured! 2.05% APY

Posted on October 8, 2019 // Leave a Comment

Robinhood brokerage has finally re-launched the high-interest cash sweep option after their failed (and illegal?) 2018 mash-up of checking accounts and SIPC-insurance. Robinhood Cash Management is basically what many other places like Betterment Savings have implemented, a FDIC-insured sweep account backed by a mix of different partner banks. The interest rate is variable and currently 2.05% APY as of 10/8/19. This is a pretty competitive rate when compared to other cash alternatives. Debit card has no fees on the Allpoint ATM network. Unfortunately, as is usual with Robinhood, you’ll have to join a long waitlist first.

This was an important move for Robinhood, as many of the established giants have joined the free stock trades party – Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, Interactive Brokers, Ally Invest. However, not all of them offer competitive rates on idle cash. Schwab is notably bad in this regard. However, Schwab does offer well-trained humans and instant customer service via phone call. Robinhood has a slick app and user interface, but they don’t readily offer a phone number. Instead, you must wait around for a reply on their online messaging service. If I put a huge chunk of my net worth in a broker, I want a phone number.

So basically, there are free trades, high interest on idle cash, and good customer service. Which are the most important to you?

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

S&P 500 Return Breakdown: Earnings, Valuations, Dividends (2015-2019)

Posted on October 6, 2019 // Leave a Comment

The financial news industry loves to provide constant updates of the S&P 500 along with endless guesses as to why it blipped up or down. I like reading about finance and it still drives me crazy! It just makes people focus on the short-term and think of the stock market like a roulette wheel. If you step back and take a longer-term view, here is a basic model for explaining the total return of the stock market:

Total Stock Returns = Earnings Growth + P/E Valuation Changes + Dividends

Here’s a quick common sense explanation:

Earnings growth. If your earnings stay the same, then all other things equal, one would expect the value of your company to stay the same as well. If earnings go up, again all other things equal, your company should be worth more, right?

Price-to-earnings ratio shows how much people are willing to pay as a multiple of earnings. When people are optimistic, the P/E ratio is high. When people are pessimistic, the P/E ratio is low. However, the overall ratio has some natural resistance points. A P/E of 10 means a 10% earning yield (ex. $100 share price and $10 of earnings per share). A P/E of 25 means a 4% earnings yield (ex. $100 share price and $4 of earnings per share).

Dividends. Cash money! In the long run, dividends tend to grow roughly at the same rate as earnings.

The WSJ Daily Shot used Bloomberg data to break down the performance of the S&P 500 total return by these components:

You can see that the dividend contribution has been pretty consistent at about 2% a year. Earnings have been going up the last 5 years, which is good news. Finally, we see that the P/E ratio has been a big part of the swings back and worth.

In The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, Jack Bogle called the changes in P/E ratio the “speculative return”, as opposed to something based on fundamentals. He made the following prediction about the future 10-year average return that book (originally published March 2007).

This was not meant to be an exact prediction. The main point was a warning that the future long-term returns were going to be lower than the historical returns of the last 25 years due to a lower dividend yield and somewhat elevated valuations. The annual return of Vanguard Total US Stock Market ETF (VTI) from March 2007 to March 2017 turned out to be 5.7%. According to the most recent quote (10/4/19), the average annual returns over the last 18 years has been 7%, last 15 years has been 9%, and the last 10 years has been 13%.

Bottom line. It can be educational to see the stock market return broken down into its parts: earnings growth, valuation change, and dividends. Much of the roller coaster performance we see every year is just the P/E ratio swinging back and forth. If you take a step back, you might find it easier to ignore the short-term volatility and focus on the long-term drivers of returns.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Best Interest Rates on Cash – October 2019

Posted on October 2, 2019 // 2 Comments

Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash for October 2019, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. Rates are lower across the board due to the recent Fed rate cut. I track these rates because I keep a full 12 months of expenses as a cash cushion and also invest in longer-term CDs (often at lesser-known credit unions) when they yield more than bonds. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to get an idea of how much extra interest you’d earn if you are moving money between accounts. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 10/2/19.

High-yield savings accounts
While the huge megabanks like to get away with 0.01% APY, it’s easy to open a new “piggy-back” savings account and simply move some funds over from your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I prioritize banks with a history of competitive rates. Some banks will bait you and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. Marcus Bank has a 7-month No Penalty CD at 2.10% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. CIT Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 2.05% APY with a $1,000 minimum deposit. You may wish to open multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • Total Direct Bank has a 12-month CD at 2.50% APY ($25,000 minimum) with an early withdrawal penalty of 3 months of interest. Navy Federal Credit Union has a special 9-month CD at 2.25% APY ($1,000 minimum), but you must have a military affiliation to join (includes being a relative of a veteran). Customers Bank has 2.25% APY ($25,000 minimum) on their liquid Ascent Money Market with a rate guarantee until 6/30/2020 (almost 10 months from today).

Money market mutual funds + Ultra-short bond ETFs
If you like to keep cash in a brokerage account, beware that many brokers pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). The following money market and ultra-short bond funds are not FDIC-insured, but may be a good option if you have idle cash and cheap/free commissions.

  • Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund currently pays an 2.00% SEC yield. The default sweep option is the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund, which has an SEC yield of 1.94%. You can manually move the money over to Prime if you meet the $3,000 minimum investment.
  • Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund currently pays 2.16% SEC yield ($3,000 min) and 2.26% SEC Yield ($50,000 min). The average duration is ~1 year, so there is more interest rate risk.
  • The PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Bond ETF (MINT) has a 2.32% SEC yield and the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) has a 2.36% SEC yield while holding a portfolio of investment-grade bonds with an average duration of ~6 months.

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes.

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 10/1/19, a 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 1.79% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 1.74% annualized interest (!).
  • The Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF (GBIL) has a 1.99% SEC yield and the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a 1.85% SEC yield. GBIL appears to have a slightly longer average maturity than BIL.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. There are annual purchase limits. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest.

  • “I Bonds” bought between May 2019 and October 2019 will earn a 1.90% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. More info here.
  • In mid-October 2019, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will have another post up at that time.

Prepaid Cards with Attached Savings Accounts
A small subset of prepaid debit cards have an “attached” FDIC-insured savings account with exceptionally high interest rates. The negatives are that balances are capped, and there are many fees that you must be careful to avoid (lest they eat up your interest). Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others do. There is a long list of previous offers that have already disappeared with little notice. I don’t personally recommend nor use any of these anymore.

  • The only notable card left in this category is Mango Money at 6% APY on up to $2,500, but there are many hoops to jump through. Requirements include $1,500+ in “signature” purchases and a minimum balance of $25.00 at the end of the month.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops, and if you make a mistake you won’t earn any interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others do. Rates can also drop to near-zero quickly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling. I don’t use any of these anymore, but the Orion offer is worth consideration.

  • Orion FCU Premium Checking has 4.00% APY on balances up to $30,000 if you meet make $500+ in direct deposits and 8 debit card “signature” purchases each month. Consumers Credit Union Free Rewards Checking has up to 5.09% APY on balances up to $10,000 if you meet make $500+ in ACH deposits, 12 debit card “signature” purchases, and spend $1,000 on their credit card each month. Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.
  • If you’re looking for a high-interest checking account without debit card transaction requirements then the rate won’t be as high, but take a look at MemoryBank at 1.15% APY.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • You could build a CD ladder at First National Bank of America at 2.70% APY for 5-year, 2.60% APY for 4-year, 2.55% APY for 3-year, 2.50% APY for 2-year, and 2.45% APY for 1-year.
  • 5-year CD rates have been dropping at many banks and credit unions, following the overall interest rate curve. A good rate is now about 3% APY, with Hiway Federal Credit Union offering 3.00% APY ($25,000 min) or 2.80% APY ($500 min) on a 5-year CD with an early withdrawal penalty of 12 months of interest. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization Minnesota Recreation and Park Foundation ($10 fee).
  • Navy Federal Credit Union has a special 18-month cert at 2.60% APY ($1,000 minimum) and a 5-year cert at 3.00% APY, but you must have a military affiliation to join (includes being a relative of a veteran).
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. The rates are not competitive right now. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs listed by Fidelity.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk, but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10+ years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. As of this writing, I am seeing no inventory on 7-year and 10-year CDs. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs from Fidelity.
  • How about two decades? Series EE Savings Bonds are not indexed to inflation, but they have a unique guarantee that the value will double in value in 20 years, which equals a guaranteed return of 3.5% a year. However, if you don’t hold for that long, you’ll be stuck with the normal rate which is quite low (currently a sad 0.10% rate). I view this as a huge early withdrawal penalty. You could also view it as a hedge against prolonged deflation, but only if you can hold on for 20 years. As of 10/2/19, the 20-year Treasury Bond rate was 1.90%.

All rates were checked as of 10/2/19.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, and Interactive Brokers Now All With $0 Stock, ETF, and Options Trades

Posted on October 2, 2019 // 16 Comments

Update: Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, Interactive Brokers, Ally Invest all now offer free stock trades. The new differentiators are things like user interface, customer service, and interest on cash sweep accounts.

Original post:

Schwab just announced the elimination of online commissions for stocks, ETFs and options listed on U.S. or Canadian exchanges as of 10/7/19 (press release). TD Ameritrade responded later the same day by matching that pricing as of 10/3/19. This will affect retail customers and also the many folks who have their portfolio run by financial advisors that use Schwab and TD Ameritrade as custodians. This could also be hard news for the feisty little guys who went there first like Robinhood, Webull, and Firstrade.

Commissions have dropped gradually for a long time, but it was still bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars to these publicly-traded corporations. That said, commissions only made up about 4% of Schwab’s net revenue. TD Ameritrade’s move was more surprising since commissions make up about 16% of their net revenue (they historically have a bigger focus on heavy traders).

I would note that TD Ameritrade and Schwab will likely keep making millions of dollars by accepting payment for order flow. This fact was always brought up with the startups that offered free trades first, but I have yet to see any hard evidence that individual investors are significantly harmed by this practice. The payments work out to about 1/10th of a cent per share traded.

I would worry more about them making money off the interest on your cash sweep. Schwab’s FDIC-insured cash sweep pays a sad 0.12% APY on all balances under $1,000,000 as of 10/1/19. TD Ameritrade’s FDIC-insured cash sweep pays a sad 0.01% APY on all balances under $25,000 as of 10/1/19.

The bigger picture here is the move away from trading and towards portfolio management and financial advice. More and more individual investors are saving in their 401ks and IRAs and such towards a million-dollar portfolio instead of traditional pensions (that were also worth a million or more, you just didn’t notice because it gave you $3,000 a month forever instead). The result is a huge fight over the trillions of dollars up for grabs, and it looks like free trades and low-cost ETF portfolio management are becoming standard equipment.

If everyone joins them at zero, the focus will move from pricing to things like customer service, convenience/user experience, and the cost to “upgrade” to more advanced components of financial advice. I actually look forward to that service-oriented competition more than this pricing war (I don’t trade much anyway). Brokers might also start expanding into new areas to replace those old stock trade profits.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

Breaking Down the Components of Financial Advice

Posted on October 1, 2019 // Leave a Comment

Vanguard has been relatively quiet after an SEC filing revealed their plans for a new digital-only advisory service called Vanguard Digital Advisor Services (VDAS). They have yet to send out any press releases or direct announcement about their new service. However, Vanguard is definitely working hard in the background on their advisory practices.

Earlier this month, they released a whitepaper called Assessing the Value of Advice based on their Vanguard Personal Advisor Services, which includes human advisors. They introduced a framework for measuring value via three components: portfolio, financial, and emotional.

Vanguard also published this short article Behind our passion for advice: Better outcomes for everyone that shows they want to impact the advice industry in the same way they forever changed the mutual fund industry.

Now more than ever, we see investors’ long-term success tied not only to the funds they use but also to the advice they receive. For more than 40 years, we’ve been champions in the mutual fund industry for accessibility, affordability, and alignment with clients’ interests. This has enabled investors to keep more of what they earn and to more easily reach their financial goals. We aim to do the same for financial advice.

This chart explores what a digital-only financial advisor can provide as compared to a human advisor:

With technology as our tailwind, opportunities abound to improve the ease of use, quality, and affordability of advice. Activities that once required time and effort from investors can now be automated and simplified. Rebalancing a portfolio, executing a tax-efficient spending strategy, or determining an optimal cash position can be done using algorithms and artificial intelligence. Technology has automated the common portfolio management tasks (the blue and the orange in the chart below). These core advice building blocks are more accurately and easily implemented than ever before, and technology allows us to provide them for less than 20 basis points. Even the most experienced and disciplined investor can benefit from advisory services at that price.

It certainly sounds like a description of Vanguard Digital Advisor Services (VDAS). I also hope they will more clearly define the added benefits of their Personal Advisor Services.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //
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