Vanguard Target Date Retirement Funds Glide Path

Inside a recent Vanguard article was a nice graphic of the current glide path for all Vanguard Target Retirement funds, which shows how the fund’s asset allocation will change over time. The fund will automatically rebalance towards these allocations, even if market returns shift things.

First, you’ll notice that the Target Retirement Year of any specific fund assumes that you will retire at age 65. Nothing really changes from ages 25 to 40, and then from 40 onwards there is a gradual transition. According to the article, the changes will continue to change for 7 years after the Target Retirement Year with a final mix of 30% stocks and 70% bonds/cash. However, the graph above seems to indicate even less stocks past age 72. Either way, this means a fund will stick around even well after the retirement date has passed, like with the Vanguard Target Retirement 2010 Fund.

Knowing the glide path helps you decide if you want to make some slight adjustments you can make when buying one of these all-in-one funds:

  • The Target Date assumes that you will retire at age 65. If you plan on retiring earlier or later than that, you can simply choose a different Target year. Keep in mind that your Social Security benefits will also adjust according to when elect to start receiving payments. When you do, that will provide a regular, inflation-adjusted income stream in addition to any income for retirement account withdrawals.
  • The Target Date assumes a generic risk tolerance level. If you want a more aggressive or conservative asset allocation over time, again, simply choose a different Target year. This will shift your glide path above accordingly.

If you’re buying one of these things, you’re doing it for the low costs, ease of use, and even perhaps how it keeps you from fiddling too much. These funds are especially great if the great majority of your retirement savings are in tax-deferred accounts like 401ks and IRAs, which is probably true for many investors that are just starting out. Otherwise, you may decide that you want to separate asset classes according to their tax treatment by the government.

How Often Should I Rebalance My Investment Portfolio? Updated

Here’s a slightly updated and revised version of an older post I had on rebalancing a portfolio to maintain a target asset allocation.

What is Rebalancing?
Let say you examine your risk tolerance and decide to invest in a mixture of 70% stocks and 30% bonds. As the years go by, your portfolio will drift one way or another. You may drop down to 60% stocks or rise up to 90% stocks. The act of rebalancing involves selling or buying shares in order to return to your initial stock/bond ratio of 70%/30%.

Why Rebalance?
Rebalancing is a way to maintain the risk to expected-reward ratio that you have chosen for your investments. In the example above, doing nothing may leave you with a 90% stock/10% bond portfolio, which is much more aggressive than your initial 70%/30% stock/bond mix.

In addition, rebalancing also forces you to buy temporarily under-performing assets and sell over-performing assets (buy low, sell high). This is the exact opposite behavior of what is shown by many investors, which is to buy in when something is hot and over-performing, only to sell when the same investment becomes out of style (buy high, sell low).

However, in taxable accounts, rebalancing will create capital gains/losses and therefore tax consequences. In some brokerage accounts, rebalancing will incur commission costs or trading fees. This is why, if possible, it is a good idea to redirect any new investment deposits in order to try and maintain your target ratios.

How Often Should I Rebalance?
[Read more…]

Finding Shadow NAVs for Money Market Funds

Money market funds always seek to maintain a published stable net asset value (NAV) of $1.00. If it drops even to $0.99, known as “breaking the buck”, people start to panic. Funds are allowed us book values and then round to the nearest penny ($0.995 becomes $1.00), so small fluctuations can be hidden from investors. On January 31st, the SEC started requiring money market funds to disclose their “shadow” NAV, which is the value of their holding at actual market prices out to four decimals places (i.e. $0.9995 or $1.0003). However, you only get to see them with a 60-day lag and by looking through SEC filings.

Shadow NAV Definition

The net asset value per share most recently calculated using available market quotations (or an appropriate substitute that reflects current market conditions), including the value of any capital support agreement, to the nearest hundredth of a cent.

How Do I Find The Shadow NAV For a Specific Fund?
These shadow NAVs are not widely publicized, although if a major money market fund had an abnormally low one, the financial media would probably pick up on it. To find the latest shadow NAV for a specific fund:

  • Visit the SEC EDGAR Search page and enter the ticker symbol.
  • Filter the big list of results by entering “N-MFP” under Filing Type.
  • The highest result should be the most recent N-MFP filing. Click on the “Documents” button, followed by clicking on the red link for “primary_doc.html”.
  • Scroll down to “Item 18. Shadow Price of the Series” for your fund.

As an example, here is the latest N-MFP filing for the Fidelity Cash Reserves Fund (FDRXX) with a Shadow NAV of $1.0003 as of 1/31/11.

What Is A Dangerously Low Shadow NAV?
[Read more…]

Building Sample Portfolios With Commission-Free ETFs

Inside this Wall Street Journal article about the recent phenomenon of brokers offering commission-free ETFs, portfolio manager Rick Ferri constructed some sample portfolios from the available offerings of Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, and Vanguard.

In this Bogleheads thread, Ferri clarifies that these portfolio are not necessarily complete sample portfolios, just what you might be able to build given what was available. Still, a potentially helpful exercise.

The portfolios I provided for today’s Wall Street Journal article were created under a strict WSJ mandate. I was to take only the free trade ETFs available at each firm and form as similar as possible portfolios across all platforms. Since each platforms is different with many asset class choices being very limited, the portfolios contained only a very basic asset allocation. An ETF/index fund portfolio would hold more asset classes without the WSJ constraints.

Firstrade Commission Free ETF Trades List (First Trade)

Get 250 Free Trades and more at Firstrade!Discount stock broker Firstrade.com announced that they will join other brokers in offering a limited number of free ETFs to be traded with no commission. You must hold them for 30 days. If you sell an eligible ETF within 30 days of purchase, their regular $6.95 online commission fee will apply. Here’s the current list of 10 ETFs:

Stocks
iShares S&P 500 Index Fund (IVV)
Vanguard Small Cap Growth ETF (VBK)
iShares S&P MidCap 400 Index Fund (IJH)
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)
Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI)

Bonds
Vanguard Short Term Bond ETF (BSV)
Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond ETF (BIV)
Vanguard Long Term Bond ETF (BLV)

Commodities Futures
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)

The list manages to cover most of the basic asset classes, although it’s missing a certain continent called Europe. I’m sure they figure nobody cares about those old and boring countries anyway, especially if you could invest in China again… even though the Emerging Market ETF is already 18% China.

$100 Tradeking Referral Extended to April 14th

The $100 Refer-A-Friend promo for TradeKing.com has extended to April 14th. You just need to apply by the deadline.

If you get a referral from an existing account holder, open a new account with at least $1,000 within 30 days of application, and make a trade within 180 days, both people will get $100. In addition, you can double-dip this with the up to $150 transfer fee rebate that they offer if you transfer assets from another broker. Visit this post for details.

Scottrade Offers Low-Cost, Commission-Free Focus Morningstar ETFs

Update: As of late 2012 Scottrade announced that they would liquidate their FocusShares ETFs.

Scottrade bought FocusShares as a subsidiary and has joined the free ETF landscape. They introduced 15 new low-cost Focus Morningstar ETFs which passively track several major broad indices. Discount brokerage Scottrade will allow account holders to trade them commission-free without any holding limits or additional requirements. You don’t need a certain balance, and you could trade as little as one share at a time. Here’s a list of the ETFs:

Focus Morningstar US Market Index ETF (FMU)
Focus Morningstar Large Cap Index ETF (FLG)
Focus Morningstar Mid Cap Index ETF (FMM)
Focus Morningstar Small Cap Index ETF (FOS)
Focus Morningstar Basic Materials Index ETF (FBM)
Focus Morningstar Communication Services Index ETF (FCQ)
Focus Morningstar Consumer Cyclical Index ETF (FCL)
Focus Morningstar Consumer Defensive Index ETF (FCD)
Focus Morningstar Energy Index ETF (FEG)
Focus Morningstar Financial Services Index ETF (FFL)
Focus Morningstar Healthcare Index ETF (FHC)
Focus Morningstar Industrials Index ETF (FIL)
Focus Morningstar Real Estate Index ETF (FRL)
Focus Morningstar Technology Index ETF (FTQ)
Focus Morningstar Utilities Index ETF (FUI)

Tracking Indexes
It’s a bit annoying that all these guys track a proprietary index from Morningstar. For example, the US Market Index ETF tracks the Morningstar® US Market Index, the Large Cap Index ETF tracks the Morningstar® Large Cap Index, and so on. I know they probably end up very close to other broad indexes, but it makes performance comparisons more difficult. Perhaps they really wanted the Morningstar brand on them, or maybe the licensing fees are a lot cheaper than MSCI or S&P charges? Maybe both.

Expense Ratios
One of the major attractions of these new ETFs are their super-low expense ratios. In most cases, they are the cheapest in their sector, even lower than Vanguard. The US Market Index ETF charges a mere 0.05% annually. They provide a ETF expense comparison chart.

However, Vanguard’s structure has them offering ETFs “at cost”, which means that employees are getting paid, but there are no profits going off to eagerly waiting shareholders. Vanguard’s US Market Index ETF (VTI) is huge with nearly $20 billion in assets, and they are charging 0.07%. There is absolutely no way Scottrade & Focus are making money on these things at 0.06%, somebody is subsidizing the heck out of them and will be losing money for a while. If these don’t do very well, then they will either shut them down or raise expense ratios in the future.

Would I Buy Them?
First, competition is good, and I’m happy that people are realizing that costs do matter. If you really wanted exposure to these areas and already have a Scottrade account, this does makes them very convenient. You can open an account with just $500, and there are no minimums or maintenance fees. I can see how Scottrade-affiliated financial advisors would like them, as it lower costs for clients already committed to the platform, and they can rebalance without commissions.

There are similar free ETF offerings from Fidelity, Schwab, and TD Ameritrade

If you are an individual investor buying ETFs as a long-term holding, my preference would be to open an account at Vanguard, buy their ETFs with no commission as well (or mutual funds), and be able to feel confident that your costs will always remain reasonable. They also have a much wider selection, including international stocks and bond funds. FocusShares already shut down all their ETFs once back in 2008 already. Are these added risks worth $2 a year for every $10,000 invested?

More coverage: IndexUniverse, WSJ.

Have An Investment Advisor? Make Them Sign This Fiduciary Pledge

The SEC has officially recommended that anyone that provides personalized investment advice to retail consumers should be subject to a fiduciary standard of conduct. Put simply, this means that anyone under the “financial adviser/money manager” umbrella has to be legally required to put your interests ahead of their own. Currently, many people providing advice are simply salespeople with fancy titles. As you might expect, big Wall Street firms are pouring millions toward lobbying efforts to stop it.

Tara Siegel Bernard of the NY Times writes in her Will You Be My Fiduciary? blog post about one CFP who’s started circulating his own Fiduciary Pledge. The idea is to get your investment planner/portfolio manager to sign it. Sounds like a good test to me.

The Fiduciary Pledge

I, the undersigned, pledge to exercise my best efforts to always act in good faith and in the best interests of my client, _______, and will act as a fiduciary. I will provide written disclosure, in advance, of any conflicts of interest, which could reasonably compromise the impartiality of my advice. Moreover, in advance, I will disclose any and all fees I will receive as a result of this transaction and I will disclose any and all fees I pay to others for referring this client transaction to me. This pledge covers all services provided.

X________________________________

Date______________________________

Ron A. Rhoades writes an RIABiz article outlining how applying the SEC recommendation could alter the financial landscape for clients, leading to reduced fees for individual investors (and thus higher returns and bigger nest eggs) and more difficult justifications for creating “sh***y investments”.

Because fiduciary advisors operate under a fiduciary standard of due care, and because fees and costs of investment products do matter, closer scrutiny of the “total fees and costs” of pooled investment vehicles and other financial products would occur. As a result, portfolio turnover within funds would decline dramatically, and even greater pressure would be brought to bear on other aspects of the fees and costs of pooled investment vehicles. However, true fiduciaries would not have to choose the lowest cost product; rather, they would justify, as part of their due diligence process, why each fee and cost was worthwhile for the investor client to incur.

Not everyone wants to manage their own investments. But if you are paying someone for help, I would agree that they should be a fiduciary at a bare minimum.

The Problem With A Retirement Based On The Stock Market

As far as retirement calculators go, the new one over at the Scottrade Knowledge Center is pretty nice. It does the whole Monte Carlo thing, running theoretical scenarios based on historical data. There are fancy interactive sliders that let you input your current portfolio balances, annual contributions, and your future expenses. The result is a pretty chart:

But the same problem always occurs whenever retirements depend heavily on market returns. If future returns are on the low side of history, I could end up broke* and eating dog food by age 90. If future market returns are high, then I could die with $10 million in the bank. What the heck do I need with that much money at age 90?

One way to avoid this is to have a very conservative portfolio of safe and short-term bonds (or TIPS). This has the slight inconvenient problem of requiring a very high savings rate. (Or lottery winnings, a large inheritance, or other windfall.)

Now, it would be nice to have a way to share the risk with others out over longer periods of time. Give up some of the potential upside, in return for some downside protection. This usually involves an insurance company (annuities) or the government (Social Security). Which do you want to trust with a big chunk of your hard-earned money? It’s a tough call. 🙂

* This isn’t technically true. I’m sure in reality, if my portfolio was doing so poorly, I would adjust my spending however I could. But I would have to decrease my standard of living.

What Is A “Safe” Savings Rate? How About 16.62%

The term “Safe Withdrawal Rate” (SWR) usually refers to the amount of your portfolio that you can withdraw each year in retirement safely without running out of money. The “4% rule” is often used, which says that if you want $40,000 inflation-adjusted every year safely , you need $1 million as your target.

Reader Dave thoughtfully sent me an interesting Financial Advisor magazine article about an upcoming academic paper by Dr. Wade Pfau that takes a look at this from another angle. What if you wanted to figure out a “Safe Savings Rate”?

Let’s say you save for 30 years, and then retire (spend) for 30 years. The traditional SWR only depends on the 30-year period when you are saving reach that target number. Instead, what if you looked at the entire 60 year period together. This ends up smoothing things out, because periods of high return are often followed by periods of low return, and vice versa.

Here are the baseline assumptions. The goal is to withdraw 50% of current salary, inflation-adjusted, during retirement. You maintain a constant asset allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds (T-Bills). Results are in the chart below. The blue line is the saving rate according to the 4% rule, and the black line is based on the new 60-year test period using actual investment returns.

Based on market data since 1871, a savings rate of 16.62% would have worked every time. As you can see the black line is also much more consistent over time. Can everyone manage that? Maybe not, but few people are satisfying the 4% rule as well.

The given scenario is not one-size-fits-all, but it would be interesting if this research was expanded into some sort of retirement calculator. For example, all other things held the same, if you saved for 40 years, the safe saving rate drops to 8.77%. If you saved for only 20 years, the safe saving rate rises to over 30%. I’ll have to wait for the published paper to see what happens if you go a bit riskier into say 80% stocks/20% bonds, or if it accounts for changing allocations over time.

Update: Here is a link to the working paper [PDF].

Charles Schwab Buys OptionsXpress Brokerage

I got an e-mail this morning that my trading account with OptionsXpress is merging with Charles Schwab. Well, considering Schwab (SCHW) has a market cap over 20 times that of OptionsXpress (OXPS), it’s more like they bought OX for their options/futures trading platform and active-trader clients. The WSJ reports:

OptionsXpress shareholders will get 1.02 shares of Schwab stock in exchange for each OptionsXpress share. That values OptionsXpress at $17.91 a share–a 17% premium based on Friday’s closing prices. OptionsXpress’s stock jumped 17% to $17.90 Monday, while Schwab finished up 0.5% to $17.65.

That 17% premium works out to valuation of $1.0 billion. Looks like I’m going to be Schwab customer for the first time. What about commission rates? OX’s options rates are very competitive.

Schwab doesn’t “have any plans right now to take away the OptionsXpress platform” at this time, Bettinger said. The firm said it would try to implement across the combined company the lower of the merging companies’ commission rates.

OptionsXpress still has their $100 sign-up bonus offer live, so if you want a Chuck Schwab account, this way you’ll get a bonus for joining. Here’s a link to my perhaps-soon-to-be-stale OptionsXpress review.

Net Worth & Goals Update – March 2011

Net Worth Chart 2011

Oh alright, here’s another net worth update. My last snapshot was about 9 months ago. I know people like the voyeurism, but hopefully my commentary will also provide some helpful insights as to achieving our goals.

Credit Card Debt
I used to take money from credit cards at 0% APR and place it into online savings accounts, bank CDs, or savings bonds that earned 4-5% interest (yes I know, much less recently), keeping the difference as profit while taking minimal risk. (Minimal in regards that the risk was only dependent on my behavior and not outside factors.) However, given the current lack of great no fee 0% APR balance transfer offers, I am currently not playing this “game”.

Most credit cards don’t require you to pay the charges built up during a monthly cycle until after a grace period of about 14 days. This theoretically provides enough time for you to receive your statement in the mail and send back a check. As this is simply a snapshot of my finances, my credit card debt consists of just these charges. I don’t carry any balances or pay any interest charges.

Retirement and Brokerage accounts
Since my last update, the broad stock indexes have risen significantly, about 25% including dividends according to Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF (VT) that I use as a general benchmark. Although these high valuations make me nervous, I am still a believer in stocks for the (very) long run and rebalancing your asset allocation regularly. Don’t buy high and sell low.

Here is our target asset allocation. Being heavy in stocks, our portfolio bounced back significantly as well.

Our total retirement portfolio is about $360k or on an estimated after-tax basis, $318,000. At a theoretical 4% withdrawal rate, this would provide $1,060 per month in retirement income, which brings me to 42% of my long-term goal of generating $2,500 per month. These are all really rough numbers, but helpful to measure progress and visualize living off your portfolio.

Cash Savings and Emergency Funds
We are happy to hold a year’s worth of expenses (conservatively estimated at $60,000) in our emergency fund. According to my emergency fund poll, many of you readers also have substantial savings set aside, with most having at least 4 months of expenses. Very nice.

Recently I wrote about how I maximize interest in my emergency fund, including the specific banks and institutions I use.

Home Equity
I would like my house paid off in 15-20 years at most, so I’ve been putting some extra money towards the mortgage. Note that this is only after maxing out both our 401k plans, fully funding IRAs every year, and creating a one-year emergency fund. I’d like our mortgage pay-down progress to parallel our portfolio growth so that both are ready for at least partial retirement in about 10 years.

So there you have it. Mrs. MMB and I both earned a six-figure salary again last year, which combined is in the top 5% of households. We try to save a lot of it while it stays this way. 🙂 The future is hard to see, but we’re getting there a lot faster than we thought we could.